Terrafugia's "Flying Cars"

Terrafugia, a company made up of MIT grads, has developed a "flying car", which is really an airplane that can be driven on roads to get from the garage to the airport. 

It can only legally exist as an airplane and as a car due to a pile of regulatory exceptions, everything from weight (to still be classed as a LIght Sport Aircraft by FAA) to airbag and ESC exceptions by DOT.

So it is basically a small 2 seat airplane with steerable, non retracing landing gear and folding wings.

Don't get me wrong, this is an amazing engineering feat.  But this thing is like a flying Aptera--a neat design study, but not a commercial proposition.

To "drive" one of these, you have to have a pilots license.

To drive one on public roads, you also have to be very carefree. Even a small fender bender could prove to have very dangerous side effects.   And insurance--I can't even imagine what insurance would cost.

The dream of flying cars--soaring above the gridlock--has been with us for many decades.  However, the practical reality is so complex, I just don't see them being affordable or practical for the average person even in the distant future.

I think the very wealthy would be better served buying personal helicopters, and the rest of us, we'll just telecommute.

RIP, CODA

Not surprisingly, CODA is bankrupt.

With it, one of the first street legal Chinese produced cars (the CODA glider came from Hafei, a re-badged Saibao III sedan) you could buy in the U.S. dies out, after paltry sales of about 100.

The other street legal Chinese car you can buy right now (sort of) is the Wheego LiFe.

How to get your 5% off from Home Depot, online

I wanted to order an item from Home Depot online, using my Home Depot credit card, but there was no indication that I would get the 5% discount that store credit card users can ask for when buying at the physical store.

I used the web chat feature to talk with a customer service rep, who informed me that the 5% discount only applies in-store... however, she offered to give me the 5% discount anyway.  I just had to send her the order number after I checked out.

So, if you are ordering online from Home Depot and you want your 5%, there might be a way to get it.

Kudos to HomeDepot.com's customer service team for helping me out.

But, jeers to Home Depot for making the 5% discount such a pain to get.  At Lowes, you get it automatically just by using your Lowes card.

Does Telsa Need Texas?

Inside EVs has a nice write-up of Elon Musk's appearance in Texas to lobby for an exception to that state's dealer franchise laws.

Musk said that selling direct is "life or death" for Tesla.

But is it really "life or death" that Tesla sell in Texas?  With all of the other states he could be in?

Perhaps he meant that that selling his cars direct to customers is "life or death", but I wonder about that too.

If Teslas are profitable cars with solid demand, then dealerships should be able to sell them and make money, and Tesla should be able to make money.  After all, that's how everyone else does it, from tiny Mitsubishi (surprisingly) to the big boys.

Smaller volume players, like Lamborghini, Fiat, or Smart, either use multi-brand dealers, or small boutique shops to market their product.  How is Tesla fundamentally different from a small volume sports car brand?

If Tesla can't survive without eating the margin that would normally go to a dealer, what does that tell us about the strength of their market?

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Fisker: The End?

There are reports that Fisker has terminated most of its employees, leaving a "skeleton crew" in place to try to find a buyer for what is left of the company, and to deal with the DOE ATVM loan payment which is about to come due.

In other words, it looks like Fisker is finally done.

A "going concern" would not fire product development people. 

Making money selling cars is hard.  Carmakers need access to billions of dollars in cash to fund daily operations, and these borrowings aren't easy to come by at a time when banks and investors want some certainty of repayment.  People aren't willing to gamble much on companies that may not become profitable. 

The big question in my mind is Tesla.  Tesla is the best capitalized of the EV start-ups, but is also in a race against the bank.  Tesla must become cash-flow positive to a degree that lenders will loan it short term operating funds with which to run the business.  Otherwise, when Elon Musk's wealth dries up, game over.

Still, I have to hand it to Henrik Fisker and crew.  They worked hard, and managed to build a beautiful, if impractical and buggy, luxury sportscar.  Collectors will be swapping Fisker Karmas for decades to come, and I expect to see Fisker meet-ups at car shows and drive-ins.

Maybe someone will buy Fisker and try to make a go at it, but I doubt we'll see any more cars built. 

That new Tesla Lease...

... is not $500/month.  Don't be fooled.

To lease a Model S, the deal is something like 10% down, and a residual value percentage equal to a Mercedes.  Federal/State incentives go to Tesla.

A monthly payment on the 60kW Model S will cost around $1100.  Then, to get you down to $500/month, they pretend gas costs $5/gallon, and factor in a business tax deduction!

Then they offer to factor in saved time from not buying gasoline, and saving time by riding in HOV lanes in California.

Drop the business tax deduction, assume gas costs $4/gallon, and ignore the HOV lane time savings trick, and I get a monthly "equivalent" lease cost of $914.  

I can't believe the press is lapping this up without doing 10 minutes of research.

Try it here: http://www.teslamotors.com/true-cost-of-ownership

Carbon Motors: The End?

According to Indianapolis Business Journal, Carbon Motors has removed their stuff from the former Visteon plant they had hoped to use for production.  And, ominously, their blog at www.carbonmotors.com is down, and their Facebook page is missing.

Looks like the end of Carbon Motors, which never really got off of the ground, due to a really dubious business case.  

The Fallacy of Fuel Economy Law Suits

Lawyers are firing up lawsuits against Ford for misleading consumers on the fuel economy of the C-Max hybrid and Fusion Hybrid.   Ford certified them as 47/47 mpg (city/highway) on the EPAs fuel economy tests, but consumers are seeing lower numbers.

The only way the lawsuits have merit is if the attorneys can prove that Ford gamed the EPA test, and that in fact they don't get 47mpg when tested according to the regulations.

But EPA has not come out and stated that Ford's tests are invalid, the way they did with Hyundai.  

The issue is, I think, that the vehicles get great (and probably repeatable) results in the lab, but in the real world they are sensitive to environmental conditions and driving style.  

This puts Ford, and other OEMs, in a tricky spot, because they are required to advertise the EPA mileage on the new-car ("Monroney") sticker.  The usual marketing jargon "up to" and "your mileage may vary" is deployed, but people still get the idea that the EPA number is what they should be getting.

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Decorate your car with magnetic signs.

Brand Graveyards.

Take a look at www.pontiac.com, www.oldsmobile.com, www.hummer.com, www.saab.com, and www.mercuryvehicles.com.  

Kinda sad.

Then there's http://www.suzukiauto.com/.  Not as sad, since they never really took off.

Who's next?

I nominate Misubishi and Smart, but who knows?  Maybe they have lots of money left to yet lose.

New Jeep Cherokee... Maybe Not That Bad

I am willing to give the 2014 Jeep Cherokee a second look, but only if it has body-colored fascia.  With body colored front fascia  the split lamp design doesn't seem as bad, and the front end looks (slightly) more harmonious and less squinty.

I hope the two-tone model was a pre-production mule and not a planned trim level.

Image courtesy of Autoweek.

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The Leaked Jeep Cherokee Reminds Me...

The leaked Jeep Cherokee reminds me of something a that might have happened if a Chinese car company tried to rip off Jeep by slapping Jeep-like styling on the grille of a Hyundai knock-off small SUV.

Yes, I am saying it is like a bad self-imitation.

2014 Jeep Cherokee = FUGLY

Jalopnik has dropped some spy shots of the 2014 Jeep Cherokee, apparently taken inside the assembly plant.  

Chrysler must be hitting the grappa really hard over there in Auburn Hills, because this thing is gorram ugly.  I realy don't think squishing the vertical trademark vertical grille, and putting squinty-eyed headlamps on the front of a Jeep does much for the brand.  The sides profile is also very organic and anonymous, like they are trying to remind us of Kia and Hyundai.

Remember that the old Cherokee, many of which are still running, was a small, square wagon with serious off-road chops.  This thing, I am not sure what it is.  I guess we'll find out.

(Image (stolen from) courtesy of Jalopnik.)

Cruze Diesel: Does It Make Sense?

How much sense does the upcoming Chevrolet Cruze Diesel make in today's U.S. auto market?  I think it mostly will depend how much money GM offers as incentives.   MSRP is $25,695, which is a premium over the gasoline Cruze Eco, which is $21,685 MSRP, of $4,000.

Currently, premium gasoline in Detroit (the Cruze Eco gets its high EPA number with premium) costs about $3.70/gal.  Diesel costs about $3.80/gal.

The combined EPA FE of the Cruze Eco is 33mpg.  If the diesel gets a combined number of 34 mpg (matching the VW Jetta), then the cost per mile for each vehicle (fuel only, not including urea) is $0.11/mile!

This means that break-even will never happen, mathematically, at current prices.  Only if GM discounts the Cruze Diesel below the price of gasoline vehicle   would it make economic sense.

So the potential buyer is left with a decision: is up to 280 ft-lb of torque at 2000RPM worth the hassle of stopping to get urea fluid every 10k miles, and the cost penalty of $4,000?

Also consider that the VW diesel Jetta has a 0-60 time of around 8.3s , while the Cruze Eco gets to 60mph in about 9s (Car and Driver numbers).

My prediction is that the Cruze Diesel will not sell in any significant numbers.   A few diesel enthusiasts might choose it, but the average buyer will see the price and opt for the turbo gasoline car.

Superbowl Auto Ad Winner: Chrysler

A quick review of the Superbowl ads from carmakers.  

Winners: Hyundai, Chrysler, Toyota.  Hyundai for silly humor, Chrysler for touching patriotism.  Toyota was pretty funny, "infinite witches"

Losers: Lincoln (huh, what?), Mercedes (devil, meh).

CARB Hubris

In classical literature, a character that show the flaw of hubris, extreme arrogance, often winds up being toppled.

California's Air Resource Board (CARB) has been showing hubris for years, as they have been pushing a zero emissions vehicle mandate.   They were chastened several times, when their mandates were simply impossible to achieve, and they had to back off on electric car requirements.

In a recent interview published in the Detroit News, ARB chairwoman Mary Nichols stated that

By 2016 or 2017 — when tough requirements kick in — Nichols said: "By then everyone will be buying them."

Everyone? Really?

To date, electric cars have not exactly caught on, even in California.   The best selling all-electric car, the Nissan Leaf, only managed to sell about 6,000 units in California in 2012.  That's out of a market of about 1.5 million new cars!  But ARB expects that in just 3 or 4 model years (one design cycle!) electric cars will be a mainstream product in California. 

How is this going to happen?  Batteries might get a bit cheaper, but no one thinks that we are going to get close to gasoline parity by 2016, that I have heard of. 

Until electric cars are close enough in convenience and purchase price to gasoline cars, or until gasoline becomes much more expensive, electric cars are not going to be a common purchase, and I expect that CARB is going to have to eat crow, again.

I ♥ Leatherman

I have an addiction.  I can't stop buying Leatherman tools.

Somewhere, I have an original Leatherman PST, which came with a leather case with an brass snap button.  

Then, every few years, when they came out with a new better tool, I had to have it.  I now have about 6 of them stashed away in different places.  One in my car, one at work in my drawer, another in my laptop bag.  

My newest addition was a clearance priced ($20!!!) set from Home Depot: a Wingman and Style combo set.  The Wingman has a liner-lock knife, spring action pliers, and a very nice feeling handle, but does skimp on scissors (no return spring).  The Style does have spring return scissors, and fits very nicely in a pants pocket or on a keychain.

There are some great things about Leatherman, the company.   They stubbornly keep making their tools in the U.S.A, in their Oregon plant.  If you break one, they'll fix it or replace it no questions asked.  I once got a new tool, for free, even though the reason for the breakage was that I had used the pliers to cut a piece of wire which was too hard, and damaged the pliers joint.  Meanwhile, companies like Gerber have moved their production to China.  Leatherman also makes a series of military specific tools, for uses such as weapon maintenance.

My only significant beef with Leatherman is that the owner of the company is known for supporting left-wing politicians, and some of the attendant causes such as gun control and environmentalism.  However, I'm willing to overlook his politics based on having a good product, good service, and American manufacturing.

*Note: this is not a sponsored post, I really do like Leatherman.   No consideration was given for this posting.

Zlaty Meyer at NAIAIS

A local journalist, who has a pretty good sense of humor, did a video dispatch from the North America International Auto Show in Detroit. It's worth watching.

Steel vs Brass Ammo

Shooting is a hobby of mine.  I own several firearms, and though I don't get out as often as I like, I try to stay proficient.

Gun blog Luckygunner.com has published an amazing and technically complete analysis of what happens when you shoot your AR-15 rifle with cheap Russian steel-case ammo for 10,000 rounds.  

The amazing conclusion: even though you will need a new barrel after around 6,000 rounds, it is still cheaper to run the steel case stuff.

You can read the whole thing here.  

Elio Motors: Another Zap or Aptera?

A startup named Elio Motors (website) has announced plans to buy GM's closed Shreveport LA plant, with intent to produce their 3 wheeled vehicle.  The Elio prototype is a 2-seater enclosed tricycle with fairly anonymous styling, with two wheels up front and one in back.  A very aggressive price of $6800 has been announced.

I am skeptical of Elio's ability to sell these in any volume.   The trike has some major limitations  including practicality, possibly compromised snow handling, and virtually no crash requirements.   Vehicles like the Elio, and the Zap and Aptera designs are legally considered motorcycles as far as the Feds are concerned, which means that in many states (example: Ohio), drivers may have to get motorcycle certifications and even wear a helmet, until laws are updated.  Unlike passenger cars, the Elio will not be required to have stability control.

I am also skeptical that they can produce a quality, safe, and refined vehicle for only $6800.  Many high-volume motorcycles are priced in this range, which lack the additional equipment (airbags, etc.) that Elio is promising.  A better comparison would be a very small car, such as the Tata Nano.  A European spec Nano was speculated (if it ever arrived) to cost $6,000-$8000.  The cheapest U.S. legal cars I am aware of are the Nissan Versa and Chevrolet Spark, both of which can be purchased for around $12,000.  

At best, I see Elio selling a few thousand cars to people who want an enclosed motorcycle, or like driving something very different.  

IIHS Top Safey Picks for 2013 (so far)

IIHS has published their list of "TSPs" (Top Safety Pick) for 2013 models.  I am pleased to see that the "Home team" (Ford, GM, Chrysler) are well represented.

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Link: IIHS