Neat Jeep Video

A group of young men decide to destroy a Jeep by running it off road. It seems to hold up quite well--if this isn't a Jeep ad, it should be. Check out the tire re-beading technique they use at around 2:30.

The Automotive Angle of the SOTU Speech

A quick take on the policy proposals that the White House has posted as part of the State Of The Union Speech.

PRESIDENT BUSH'S DOMESTIC AGENDA

Energy

President Bush Will Ask Congress And America's Scientists, Farmers, Industry Leaders, And Entrepreneurs To Join Him In Pursuing The Goal Of Reducing U.S. Gasoline Usage By 20 Percent In The Next Ten Years – Twenty In Ten.

America Will Reach The President's Twenty In Ten Goal By:

• Increasing The Supply Of Renewable And Alternative Fuels By Setting A Mandatory Fuels Standard To Require 35 Billion Gallons Of Renewable And Alternative Fuels In 2017 – Nearly Five Times The 2012 Target Now In Law. In 2017, this will displace 15 percent of projected annual gasoline use.

This sounds like increased mandatory ethanol mix, as well as possible mandates of biodiesel. Unless an open international market in ethanol and biodiesel is permitted, fuel prices will likely go up.

• Reforming And Modernizing Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards For Cars And Extending The Current Light Truck Rule. In 2017, this will reduce projected annual gasoline use by up to 8.5 billion gallons, a further 5 percent reduction that, in combination with increasing the supply of renewable and alternative fuels, will bring the total reduction in projected annual gasoline use to 20 percent.

Not much detail here, but likely it means "increase CAFE", which is a mixed bag. On one hand, it will make cars more expensive or less powerful. On the other hand, more regulation means more competitive advantage to the established players, and a steeper hill to climb for the Chinese.

• Congress Must Reform CAFE For Passenger Cars. The Administration has twice increased CAFE standards for light trucks using an attribute-based method. An attribute-based system (for example, a size-based system) reduces the risk that vehicle safety is compromised, helps preserve consumer choice, and helps spread the burden of compliance across all product lines and manufacturers. Congress should authorize the Secretary of Transportation to apply the same kind of attribute-based method to passenger cars.

So cars would be graded approximately by weight (footprint = wheelbase x track) rather than all being required to average out to the same number. This is a smarter way to do CAFE (a smarter way to do a stupid thing) because it takes size into account. However, we don't know yet how hard the new rule will push on fuel economy.

The President's Plan Will Help Confront Climate Change By Stopping The Projected Growth Of Carbon Dioxide Emissions From Cars, Light Trucks, And SUVs Within 10 Years.

The President's Plan To Strengthen America's Energy Security Also Includes:

• Stepping Up Domestic Oil Production In Environmentally Sensitive Ways

Good. Supply and demand--reduce demand, but also increase supply. Require more ethanol mixing, but reduce the price of the major component to offset some of the pain.

• Doubling The Current Capacity Of The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) To 1.5 Billion Barrels By 2027. Doubling the SPR alone will provide approximately 97 days of net oil import protection, enhancing America's ability to respond to potential oil disruptions.

Interesting. The SPR is not just used to control market prices, and Bush didn't seem to suggest that it would be. Is he preparing for another possible embargo from the Arabs over war policy? The turmoil in the Persian Gulf caused by a war with Iran would certainly cause a huge spike in oil prices. Update: I did a little reading about the SPR, it only has a capacity of 700 million barrels, in underground caverns. To double it would take a long time.

So, overall it looks not too bad but also not great for the auto industry. CAFE pressure will increase, which will cause vehicles to be more expensive as more technology (hybrids, turbos, direct injection, etc.) is thrown at the problem. A quick answer will be to sell more cars with less powerful engines, so as a result the V6 and V8 options may become pricier. OTOH, CAFE will help keep the Chinese out longer.

Increased mandatory use of ethanol will cause fuel prices to go up (also corn) but may be offset by additional supply, if Congress agrees (unlikely). Increased fuel prices will encourage a mix of smaller vehicles--more pain for the midsize/large truck based SUVs, and fullsized pickup trucks.

CU Effed Up, Schooled By NHTSA

When Consumer's Union (Consumer Reports) reported that the majority of infant seats they tested failed a side impact crash test, NHTSA was horrified and sprang into action. They tested samples of the same car seats that CU was claiming failed--and they couldn't duplicate CU's results. NHTSA deduced that CU had tested an equivalent of a 70mph side impact, not a 38mph side impact.

“Our initial review of the Consumer Reports testing procedures showed a significant error in the manner in which it conducted and reported on its side-impact tests. The organization’s data show its side-impact tests were actually conducted under conditions that would represent being struck in excess of 70 mph, twice as fast as the group claimed. When NHTSA tested the same child seats in conditions representing the 38.5 mph conditions claimed by Consumer Reports, the seats stayed in their bases as they should, instead of failing dramatically.”

I have always been suspicious of Consumer Reports "scientific" methods--they don't reveal details of their testing, use tiny sample sizes, and inject (mostly liberal) politics into their conclusions. For example, CU apparently gives the same weight to a burnt out lightbulb on a new car as a non functioning ABS system--both are "problems". Obviously, one is major and one is not.

CU has retracted their report, but the damage has already been done to the car seat makers, who were pilloried by the local nightly news ("Your kids at risk! News at 11:00!"). Even worse,they may have convinced some people that their car seats are unsafe. I hope they get sued.

Here's a video of a re-test that NHTSA did of one of the "failed" car seats, at the actual speed of 38mph:



Here's a video of an unrestrained infant dummy:



(Please, don't be a dummy!)

Video: Car Curling, Or Maybe Hockey?

Funny/scary video from Portland. Icy street, apparently on an incline, clueless drivers. Add them up, and you get life size curling!

Funny Video: Pump on the Wrong Side

Heh.

Imam: Beat Your Wife (Wives?) Carefully.

According to this authority, a Muslim may beat his wife (or wives?) but only if he is carefull--no broken bones, no bruises, don't hit the face, and not in front of the kids. Very progressive!



Question: when was the last time any Rabbi, Pastor, Priest, or Minister told you it was OK to beat your wife, and outlined the parameters of how it should be done?

Question: can a religion condone wife-beating and still be a "religion of peace"?

*Before you guys get all huffy on me, let me say that I don't believe that all Muslims are wife beaters. I am certain that some streams of Islam don't condone wife beating. But a sizeable portion of the Muslim world is still stuck in about the year 1200.

Ultimate Used Parts eBay Auction

Wow. Just wow. Check out this eBay auction for a collection of vintage cars and parts.

Ethanol: Corporate Welfare for Farmers

A large part of the political support for ethanol--for mixing requirements, CAFE credits, and outright subsidies--is old fashioned "special interest" pandering, nest feathering, corporate welfare.

One aspect of this farmer protection program is the import tariff on ethanol. Currently, ethanol imports are taxed at a whopping $0.54/gal (per gallon!). The effect of this is to protect the domestic ethanol producers, and to keep ethanol expensive. But it isn't the "family farm" that is being protected--the big winners are the huge producers of ethanol, corn, and seed--companies like Monsanto and Archer Daniels Midland.

This doesn't make much sense for the bigger picture. Ethanol derived from corn and soybeans is much less energy efficient than ethanol derived from sugarcane, according to a Wall Street Journal article I just read. Corn has an ethanol energy factor of 1.3 (1.3 BTU's out for every BTU it took to produce), while sugarcane has an efficiency of a whopping 8.

If our priorities are to reduce our use of oil, we should be working on getting the cheapest ethanol possible. I guess we'll find out what the priorities of the New Democrat Congress are soon enough--pork, or oil?

Winter Safety Gear

There have been some reminders recently of how dangerous nature can be, especially in winter, including the Kim family tragedy and heavy snowstorms and avalanches in Colorado.

Everyone should ideally carry a minimal safety kit in their car, which would support basic first aid care and short term shelter. A longer term kit is a must for anyone who lives in harsh or rural areas, where help may be days not hours away.

Since I am a suburban Detroiter, my car safety kit is pretty minimal, as far as supplies go. Some of the supplies I carry:

• Fix-a-flat goo
• Extending lug wrench
  
• Reflective emergency blanket
• An old waterproof coat with hood
• An old pair of glove (also comes in handy for repairs)
• Red road flares
• First aid kit
• Mag-lite D-cell LED flashlight (will run a looong time)
• Leatherman multi-tool
• Hand sanitizer
• $50 cash
  
• Spare headlight bulbs
• Duct tape
  
• Jumper cables
• A few MREs
• Bottled water (in glass)

After the James Kim story, I decided to add a few MRE's and water to my emergency trunk box, just in case I was stuck somewhere far away from rescue, but I doubt I'll ever need them.

Some day, when I set aside the time, I will do the legal paperwork to be able to legally carry my 1911 in my car. Around here, the sad truth is, there is more threat from uncivilized men than from avalanches.

In-Car TV

The other night, I pulled up to a light next to a Honda Odyssey minivan which had a small TV screen flipped down from the headliner.

On it, quite easily visible to anyone in adjacent lanes, was some sort of porn.

I really don't understand... do people really need to be plugged into TV all the time? Isn't driving engaging enough? And even if they must watch TV at all times, can't the keep their porn at home, where the rest of us don't have to look at it?

GM Surrenders (Minivans)

The Detroit News reports that GM is fleeing the minivan market, to concentrate on crossovers, just as Ford is doing.

It seems like Ford and GM both made the same mistake--they brought a knife to a gun-fight, and got whacked by Honda and Toyota in the minivan segment. Both companies sold bland, underpowered, and unrefined vans, and must have made a conscious decision not to invest the money required to produce a world class product. Meanwhile, Toyota focused on quality and refinement, and Honda decided to make minivans a little sharper, and a lot quicker. Chrysler, the now (and future?) king of the segment, made sure to cover the market from cheap soccer wagons up to more elegant looking trim, and dropped some serious money on adding fold-in seats.

"We do believe it is a declining segment," GM Vice Chairman Bob Lutz told The News on Tuesday. "Our new crossovers, Acadia, Outlook and Enclave with their three rows of seats and economical V-6 engines, can meet the same customer needs, minus the 'Soccer Mom' stigma.."

There is nothing wrong with using crossovers (tall wagons, or unibody SUVs, or whatever) to fill the"mommy wagon" niche, there will always be a market here. However, CUVs are not minivans--they don't have sliding doors, as a rule, which creates a real problem for many customers, who need the convenience. Power sliding doors allow parents to juggle more stuff while they wrestle the baby out of the second row.

Maybe the minivan market is shrinking, but the abject failure of Ford and GM hinges not on changing fashions--they just chose not to compete.

Spotted: Smart Fortwo

I stopped to buy some gas near my house today, and saw a guy fueling one of these, a dark blue and silver Smart Fortwo.


It is shocking how small these cars really are, compared to a typical mid-sized sedan. There is so little crush space from the front bumper to the driver, and at the rear, I don't think I could ever feel safe driving one. The tall greenhouse and small wheels pushed out to the corners make the thing look like a rollerskate.

The driver was a wiry, gray haired middle aged man, who I imagine was quite pleased with himself, as he filled his tiny gas tank and smugly thought about his 40mpg. Then again, he could have been an engineer or exec driving an evaluation unit--I didn't get a good look at the plate, other than to see that it was the white on dark blue of MI.

Jealous!

As you may have guessed from my occasional firearm-related posting, I am squarely in the pro-gun camp. Jalopnik reports that Ford took some jounalists, including bloggers, to a shooting range for some fun, as part of a James Bond themed day. (Aside: isn't Aston Martin the Bond brand? And in the last Bond movie, didn't the bad guys drive Fords and Lincolns?)

Color me jealous.

For any readers in SE MI, the range the event happened looks like it was Target Sports in Royal Oak, guessing from the photos. This is a first class indoor pistol range, and they will rent you a full-auto gun (MP5, Colt SMG) if you are ready to pay the (hefty) rental fee. I go there occasionally to shoot.

After the shooting event, the journalists were driven to a martini making class.

Lincoln on Amazon

The Detroit news is reporting that Lincoln is advertising some of its products on Amazon.com. They are displayed as a normal order-able Amazon item, except that instead of a "buy it" link there is a "Reserve" link, which takes you to Lincoln.com.

See The Lincoln MKX on Amazon

I think this is a silly tactic, and one that has a real danger of back-firing. In general, Amazon allows customers to post negative reviews of products if they are reasonably written. Like any other item, it appears that users can comment on the Lincoln vehicles and give them star ratings. You can't really order a Lincoln from Amazon, and you don't save any money, which is Amazon's big draw. You also can't cross-shop other cars.

People are not going to go and email each other, "hey, did you see that new Lincoln on Amazon? $25 shipping!".

The Buick O' Truth

Ever wonder how a real car would stand up to being shot from a real pistol or rifle? The answer is, "hot knife through butter". A policeman who seeks cover behind an un-armored car door, for example, has very little protection. The only part of a car that will effectively stop a bullet is the engine block.

The Buick O' Truth

Another "Shoot the car" Video

I'm jealous.

Detroit and the New Democrat Congress

I'm disappointed (understatement!) in the results of the mid-term elections, but I can't say I am surprised. The Republicans worked hard to screw up their party, and now have been taught a harsh lesson.

A Democrat controlled Congress will have some definite effects on the auto industry, some good and some bad. I have to play arm-chair economist for a while, here are a few examples I have thought of:

• Consumer Spending--The Democrats are likely to raise taxes to pay for more generous social programs. They are also likely to raise the minimum wage, which will increase the prices of some goods and services. I expect this to put pressure on new car sales, as the general economy slows down. The stock market seems to be reflecting this already, but maybe I'm jumping the gun. Bad for the industry.
• Oil/Fuel--It is likely that the Democrats will suppress new exploration and drilling offshore and in Alaska, as part of their environmental policy. It is also possible that they will raise taxes on oil companies, which will have various chilling effects on that industry, from reduced production to a pass-through of the tax to consumers. They may or may not support increasing refining capacity, depending on who is talking. The new Congress will also likely support taxpayer subsidized ethanol production and distribution. I expect that the price of oil and gasoline will increase, and the oil futures seem to be headed that way. Bad for the industry.
• Labor Policy--The Democrats are the party of organized labor. I expect them to take union friendly stands when the opportunity arises. It may become harder for the unionized auto makers (the Big 2.5) to reduce their union labor costs, which is a needed step to become competitive with the imports and transplants, if Congress gets involved. Bad for the industry.
• Trade Policy--The Democrats have said that they support fair trade, and will energetically pursue trade deals that remove barriers to U.S. goods, and reduce the advantages that countries like China and Korea give their domestic industries, such as undervalued currency. If they can manage to open up markets without engaging in a trade war, this could help export sales. Maybe good for the industry.
• Environmental/CAFE--There are two schools of thought in the Democratic party on automotive fuel economy and environmental regulation. One side is the California greenie side, exemplified by Nancy Pelosi, who voted to raise CAFE to 33mpg. On the other side is Rep. John Dingell, expected to chair the energy committee, who represents a heavily UAW district, and tends to be much more friendly to the Big 2.5 on CAFE issues. CAFE has both good and bad effects on the industry. On one hand, it increases the barrier to entry for new competitors such as the Chinese. On the other it tends to make vehicles more expensive to buy, due to the additional technology necessary to meet the new requirements; it may reduce safety if it forces more people into small cars. If Dingell can hold off the California wing, then the damage may be modest. Maybe bad for the industry.
• Safety Regulations--More stringent safety regulations have similar effects as CAFE, but with a more positive tilt, I think. They increase the barrier to entry for competitors, and may also increase vehicle cost somewhat, hurting sales; however, many safety advances do not have a very high cost associated with them, such as stability control or additional airbags, compared with the major powertrain changes that may be required to meet higher CAFE standards. Maybe good for the industry.
• Healthcare Costs--The Big 2.5 have been hammering on healthcare costs for some time, suggesting that the federal government may be able to help. The question is, what form will this help take? Modest improvements such as beating up the drug companies won't be a game changer, but major changes such as a socialized government medical insurance system will be so expensive in taxes they they will be destructive to the broader economy. I don't think the Democrats will be able to enact socialized medicine any time soon, so I guess I'd call this one Maybe good for the industry.
• Tort Reform--is now dead. The Democrats are long time clients of the trial lawyers, and fight tort reform ferociously. Auto companies will not see further relief from outrageous product liability awards. Bad for the industry.

Re-reading my list, I suppose I am pessimistic. I expect a more aggressive regulatory environment, higher taxes, a slower economy, and more expensive fuel and vehicles, which will translate directly into slower sales for the auto companies. On the more positive side, the automakers may get some healthcare cost relief, albeit at the expense of the taxpayer's wallet, and may get some help with foreign trade.

I hope that the now opposition party Republicans and now lame-duck President will grow some cojones, and fight off as much bad economic policy as possible. President Bush needs to buy a shiny new red veto pen. It is bad enough in Detroit as it is.

Auto Recycling, Clarkson Style

Jeremy Clarkson of Top Gear decides to do some skeet shooting--with old cars. Unhappy with his over-under, he moves to a SPAS-12, then a .30 cal machine gun, then an anti-tank gun. I thought the British weren't allowed to touch guns?

John Kerry... Again...

Kerry's obviously thinking of running for President again--he is starting to crack up already.






















Update: The .MIL guys strike back!











(photo courtesy of Little Green Footballs)

World's Fastest Street Legal Car

The title of "world's fastest street legal car" is claimed by a guy in England who has a 1972 Vauxhaul Victor which he calles "Red Victor 1". It has a 9.3L V8 with two turbos, and claims 2200 BHP. 7.8s quarter mile.

The car is street legal because it is grandfathered--and it is also tax free.

Video from YouTube.