Digging Into "Dealergate", Part II

Doug Ross continues to assert that the Obama administration chose to close Chrysler dealers based on their political donations, but he relies on some one-sided data, hanging a lot on the closing list.

For my second look at the issue, I thought I'd look locally. What I did was tabulate the Chrysler dealers in the greater Metro Detroit area which are on the closing list, and also the ones on the stay-open list and take note of their political donations. Here are the results:

Closing:
Dealer, Donations

FORTINBERRY R

MCDONALD R

MONICATTI R

PENSKE R

RUSSO R

TAMAROFF R

VIVIANO R

Remaining:

Dealer, Donations

DEEBY R

FISCHER R

MCINERNEY R+D

MEADE AFIT PAC

MILOSCH R

MOORE NADA PAC

PENSKE R

RIEHL NADA PAC

ROBBINS R

SCOTT R

SNETHKAMP R

VIVIANO R

Metro Detroit Chrysler dealers who donated did so overwhelmingly to the Republicans.

The only example of a Metro Detroit Chrysler dealer who gave money to Democrats was "Hoot" McInerny, who gave large amounts to both sides. It would also be very bad press for Chrysler to try to axe McInerny's dealership, because he is a well known local personality and a big philanthropist.

I don't think you can argue any political bias in Metro Detroit, based on the data.

No Obvious Political Bias In Chrysler Dealership Closings

Update: Blogger Marla Singer at Zero Hedge did some actual statistcs on the entire dealer open and closing list, and found a small correlation between open dealers and donations to Hillary Clinton's campaign, but not a very significant difference between Democrat and Republican giving overall (0.93 vs 1.05 odds ratio of being closed, D vs R).

The blogger Doug Ross did some digging, and discovered that very few of the Chrysler dealers on the closing list gave political contributions to the Democrats in the last election cycle, and most of the ones that did give gave to Republicans.

In his original post (here), Ross found that out of a collection of 39 dealers he checked, 4 gave half or more of their contributions to Democrats (10%)

As much as I would like to believe it to be true, I don't think it is. There is a major flaw with his analysis: he didn't bother to check the dealers that are staying open to see how their political contributions broke down.

My hypothesis is that Chrysler dealers, being small businessmen, are more likely to donate to Republicans than Democrats, for predictable reasons. Like any small businessmen, car dealers want lower taxes, a lower minimum wage, fewer regulations, etc.

The list of Chrysler dealers that are staying open is here. This is a list of the dealers whose contracts will be assumed by the new Chrysler-Fiat.

What I did was go down the list and copy names into the search box at OpenSecrets.org until I got a clean hit. I did this until I got 25 dealers with donation records for the 2008 election cycle. The results can be considered randomized, since we don't expect a correlation in the alphabetical name of the dealership with their political affiliation (or geographic location).

Result: 23 dealer principals donated to Republicans, 2 donated to Democrats, or about 10%.

If you run these numbers through a binomial distribution, you get a 2-tailed P-value of 1! That means that the hypothesis that the two distributions are identical is correct. Chrysler dealers (and probably all auto dealers) who donated for the 2008 election cycle overwhelmingly supported the Republicans.

Here is my "raw data", if you want to spot check me.

DEEBY	R
AKINS	R
SMITH	R
MELLOY	R
SANZI	R
MCKAY	R
SIX	R
UDD	R
ANCIRA	R
ANDERSON	R
NOKES	R
HOSSLER	R
MAROONE	R
MORELAND	R
HADDAD	R
ALBRO	R
THOMASON	D
WYANT	R
BAUMANN	R
LANPHERE	R
SPITZER	D
BENSON	R
BERGERON	R
BERGSTROM	R
GERBAZ	R

CAFE vs. EPA

Edmunds is making a big deal about the difference in EPA "window sticker" vs CAFE fuel economy standards. Read about it here. They're reminding us that the window sticker fuel economy is a (downward) adjusted number which takes into account more typical customer usage (like A/C). The CAFE city FE test (FTP75) is run on a chassis dynamometer, at 72F, with a cold engine, with A/C off, and various other standard conditions.

The "two standards" aren't really two standards, the legal standard is CAFE FE (unadjusted). The fuel economy labels for consumers are required by law, but cars are not regulated to that number.

Edmunds does provide a handy list of vehicles that might meet the 2016 standards today, and not surprisingly, they are all sub-compact and compact cars, and hybrids.

This is instructive. In 2016, affordable cars which meet the new CAFE standards will be compact cars. Anything larger will be much more expensive, as carmakers will have play tricks such as reduce weight (aluminum, carbon fiber), add hybrid drives, add gasoline engine technology (turbo direct injection), or perhaps clean diesel.

Today, the average car is a "midsize" vehicle, somewhere between a Toyota Camry and a Honda Civic. In 2016, I suspect the average car will be a compact, about the size of a Civic.

Clarkson's Fiesta Movement

Very entertaining segment from BBC's Top Gear, where Jeremy Clarkson reviews the European Ford Fiesta. He takes his Fiesta movement on a game of tag with a Chevrolet Corvette inside a shopping mall.

Chrysler Dealer Collateral Damage

These photo show the Celtic Pipes and Drums, marching in the Birmingham parade. They are a Scottish style band based in the Troy area.

They are sponsored by Birmingham Chrysler Jeep, which was told by Chrysler that its franchise was being terminated last Thursday. If BCJ goes out of business, the band loses its sponsor.

I Love A Parade

This morning I went down and saw the annual Celebrate Birmingham parade. This is an annual affair with a small-town feel, where two marching bands, the shriners, local politicians, and lots of interesting cars make a slow circuit around downtown Birmingham before retiring to the central park for a day of kiddie fun. Here is a selection of the more interesting vehicles from the parade.

A classic Ford

The Oakland Country DARE Truck (our tax dollars at work...)

Oakland County dive rescue

A cool antique fire engine

A Chrysler wagon


Eastern Bloc army truck?

Ford convertible

Another classif Ford

The Celtic Pipes and Drums


The Shriner's wheelie wagon, based on an old Ford truck I think

Shriners on little scooters

Now come the old-west Shriners


Not very P.C. but he was funny.

Another old car converted for clown duty


This tree service truck looks like a recycled old ladder fire truck.

The Falun Gong were out in force. No one felt threatened. The state was not destabilized.

Interesting taste in women.

Cool spring-stilt walkers


The tail end of the parade was a huge mass of bassett hounds.

Chrysler's Dealer Destruction Hits Home

One of the Chrysler dealers on the dealer closing list that Chrysler filed with the bankruptcy court today is Birmingham Chrysler Jeep, known for its odd jingle, "Birmingham's In Troy!". This dealership is not far from my house. It is a corner store in the sprawling Troy Motor Mall, a huge collection of different car dealerships.

Sunset In Troy

BCJ was, according to this news article, in the top 20 dealerships in the country. It has been owned by the Mealey family since 1966, and employs 90 people. BCJ is known in the area for its fun, corny advertising, such as this spot where the owner snow blows his lot and rides around on a lawn tractor.

I wasn't expecting Birmingham Chrysler Jeep to close. I thought Chrysler/Fiat would want a slot in the Troy Motor Mall, where they could compete directly against the other brands, just yards away. But the massive Golling dealership in nearby Bloomfield Hills, which was chosen to stay open, sells all three Chrysler brands from one huge lot.

I know people who work at this dealership. This morning, when they got the news that they were expected to close, 40 employees were laid off all at once. All around the country, the same scene was repeated today. All around the country, people are tasting the salty, metallic flavor of failure.

GM Plans To Import Chinese Cars

According to the Automotive News, which obtained a copy of a product plan document which GM submitted to Obama's auto task force, GM is planning to ramp up production of cars in China for importation to the U.S.  Starting with about 17,000 cars in 2011, the number would increase to about 51,000 by 2014.  

GM already imports Chinese made engines (the 3.4L pushrod iron block V6 in the Equinox/Torrent), and I won't buy one.

If GM imports Chinese cars, I won't even consider one of those, either.

The UAW and the Democrats are going to tear GM a new one for this.  If you are relying on a UAW-friendly Democrat-controlled congress to save you, maybe plans for Chinese importation aren't smart, when Ford is re-tooling Michigan Truck to use UAW labor to build small cars.  

More here.

Here Piggy

Heh.

(Encyclopedia Dramatica)

Bottomfishing The Best Of The Dying Brands

It isn't quite time for bottom fishing, but it is getting close. Depending on what your needs are, you should soon be able to pick up a decent car from a dying brand at a very good price.

If I was in the market, here are some cars I would consider:

GM:

• Pontiac Vibe -- Decent small hatch, though a rental fleet favorite. Nice, practical package. Weird rear window.
• Pontiac G8 -- Probably the best car Pontiac is selling now. I'm not a fan of the nostrils, but otherwise a very sharp car. Good engines.
• Pontiac G6 -- Decent midsize sedan/coupe. Also a rental fleet favorite.
• Pontiac G5 -- Great if you wanted a Cobalt to begin with, or a functional compact car.
• Pontiac Torrent -- Decent, practical small SUV, saddled with a crummy Chinese built engine.
• Saturn Aura -- Won the 2007 Car Of The Year award. The precurser to the new Malibu. Sharp looking.
• Saturn Astra -- Great small car, if a little underpowered. Tight European style and handling.
• Saturn Vue -- Decent small SUV, if a bit heavy.

Chrysler:

• Chrysler 300C -- Long in the tooth but still a nice design. If you don't mind gun-slit windows and so-so fuel economy, this is a nice rear wheel drive choice.
• Chrysler Town & Country -- Competent. If you need a minivan, you may be willing to trade Honda dynamics and residual values for the discount on one of these.
• Dodge Ram -- Newly refreshed, the Ram is hlghly rated and is winning comparisons against other full sized pickups in the press.
• Dodge Journey -- New crossover SUV from Dodge. Looks like a decent package, reviews are mixed.
• Dodge Challenger -- Chrysler's Mustang fighter.
• Dodge Charger -- Sportier, meaner version of the 300c. Rear wheel drive, aggressive styling.

In my opinion, these vehicles are good enough that someone could buy one without massive compromises, and reap the benefits of the desperate pricing environment. I think it is unlikely that you would be stuck with an unfixable car if something did break, even if GM and Chrysler are broken up in bankrupcy court. Even if the companies collapse, the market for replacement parts and service will ensure that someone will be able to repair them. With the government warranty backing there isn't much warranty cost risk, either.

DOE Cutting Hydrodgen Car Funding

Obama's Department Of Energy Secretray Stephen Chu announced that the DOE is cutting funds for research into hydrogen powered cars.  From the budget rollout presentatio (here)

FY 2010 budget cuts less effective programs so we can invest in our economic future.  For example:

Cutting funding for deep-water and unconventional oil and gas research that industry can and does fund on its own. 

Moving away from funding vehicular hydrogen fuel cells to technologies with more immediate promise

I think, on this one, Chu (and Obama) are correct.  H2 is very far away from being practical, mostly because of the massive task that a hydrogen fuelling infrastructure would be.  There would be much greater short term benefits from research into better batteries.

Republicans and Hybrids

Over at the WSJ, the question is asked, "Where are the Republican hybrid buyers?".

The answer, is that most people (not just Republicans) won't buy a hybrid until the economics work out, and until the cars available will be a minimal sacrifice in handling, room, and performance.

For example, the closest to a no-compromises mid-size hybrid that I have seen to date from a Detroit automaker is a Ford Fusion hybrid. But it costs around $30,000! An I4 Fusion can be bought for much closer to $20,000.

The author makes the argument that some conservatives will be attracted to the national security aspects of hybrids. I agree with this personally, and if hybrids become affordable, I would consider one even at a modest premium to a gasoline vehicle.

Without a clear cost advantage, hybrid sales have to rely primarily on the segment willing to pay more for green -- a segment that has been hard-hit by the financial crisis yet still seems to be growing. But if we really want to expand the number of buyers, we should develop new arguments that appeal to the Republicans who have been holding back. To look at it another way, every hybrid car reduces not just greenhouse gases but reduces our dependence on foreign oil -- especially the new plug-in hybrids under development. And that means that buying a hybrid is not just good for the environment, but good for our energy independence and national security.

Obama is doing his part to promote hybrids in many ways. One way that isn't as frequently mentioned is that his administration is not as friendly to oil drilling as Bush's was. Obama's policy will restrict the supply of new oil, which will drive the price up (and, of course profits to OPEC). This will cause people to consider hybrids, as gas goes back to $3/gal over the long term.

Even Republicans understand $3 gas.

GM Mega-Dilution

GM has filed a paper (here) with the SEC, "PRE 14C" which lays out a plan to dilute its common stock, by issuing new shares to the U.S. Treasury in exchange for debt.

GM will issue enough new shares so that the total number outstanding will be 62 billion.  There are currently about 610 million shares outstanding.  This is a dilution of 100:1.  This will reduce the "par value" of $1.66 to $0.01/share.  They will then do a reverse split of 1:100, reducing the outstanding shares back to 620 million.  

The effect of this is that current common stock holders will be wiped out.  

Example: you own 1000 shares which are currently worth around $1600.  Your 1000 shares will become 10 shares, worth about $16. total. That's a loss of 99%.

Cash For Clunkers Compromise

The House Energy Committee has released a compromise "Cash For Clunkers" plan, which is quite different than the two previous competing bills.

You can read the whole thing here.

One big change is that the plan is only good for one year, not the 3 years of HR1550.

The quick summary:

Passenger cars
$3,500 for a new vehicle of at least 22mpg, if old one was at most 18mpg; 4mpg improvement
$4,500 for a new vehicle of at least a 10mpg improvement

Light Trucks & SUVs
$3,500 for a new vehicle of at least 18mpg, if 2mpg improvement
$4,500 for a new vehicle of at least a 5 mpg improvement

Large Light Duty Truck (6,000-8,500 lbs)
$3,500 for a new vehicle of at least 15mpg, if 1mpg improvement
$4,500 for a new vehicle of at least 2mpg improvement

Work Truck (8,500-10,000lbs)
$3,500 for any new vehicle if old vehicles pre-2002

The one page summary did not mention scrappage details, so I assume the rules will be simlar to HR520 and 1550.

There is no domestic or NAFTA favoritism here--any vehicle make qualifies. The mileage requirements are modest. It will be easy for people to use the credit, which is good. But the duration is short, so many people won't be ready to take advantage of the credit.

I think this will be a good shot in the arm to the automotive industry, with modest fuel economy benefits.

John Kerry Introduces Quiet Car Ban

John Kerry and Arlen Spector have introduced Senate bill S.841, the "Pedestrian Safety Enhancement Act of 2009". This legislation, if signed into law, would require the U.S. Department of Transportation to take up to 90 days to study the dangers that near-silent cars pose to blind pedestrians. Then, 90 days later, the DOT would be required to issue regulations:

(b) Requirements- The standard required under this section shall provide that every motor vehicle be equipped with a method--

(1) to provide blind and other pedestrians with a non-visual alert regarding the location, motion, speed, and direction of travel of a motor vehicle that provides substantially the same protection of such pedestrians as that provided by a motor vehicle with an internal combustion engine; and

(2) that will permit a blind or other pedestrian to determine the location, motion, speed, and direction of travel of a motor vehicle with substantially the same degree of certainty as such pedestrians are able to determine the location, motion, speed, and direction of travel of a motor vehicle with an internal combustion engine.

You can read the whole thing here.

So here's an idea: let's add external speakers to our future electric cars which make them all sound like this:

Lutz Smacks Letterman

In a blog post titled "Stupid Human Tricks", Bob Lutz smacks down David Letterman for being uninformed about the Chevrolet Volt, when hosting Tesla's CEO. Along they way, Lutz sideswiped Drew Barrymore, made fun of Letterman's "pallatial estate", and claimed to have a pet swan that can do tricks. Read the whole thing here.

Now, if he is that uninformed, I must point out that it’s not his fault, it’s ours. We should do a better job of making sure that Dave and everyone else who is in position to comment on national TV about our products has the right information, whether they use that information or not. Perhaps if we’d hired Drew Barrymore to be the spokesperson for the vehicle we’d have commanded more of his attention. Regardless, we’d like to rectify the situation.

I would like to personally invite Dave to come learn more about the Volt, including the hugely important but unmentioned-by-him fact that its range is 40 purely electric miles plus several hundred more miles thanks to its range-extender. Dave may drive more than 40 miles a day on his commute from the palatial Connecticut estate, but about 80 percent of Americans don’t. And those people could conceivably drive the Volt every day and never use a drop of gasoline.

The Chrysler Filing

You can read the actual text of Chrysler's bankruptcy filing on the WSJ web site, here. There's also a long (117p) affidavit here. It's fascinating, in a macabre look-a-dead-body sort of way.

One interesting part is how much Chrysler owes the top unsecured (no collateral) creditors:

#1 Ohio Module Manufacturing Co.: $70.3 million (chassis assembly)
#2 BBDO: $58 million (marketing)
#3 Johnson Controls: $50.3 million (parts)
#4 Continental Automotive: $47 million (parts)
also #29 Continental-Teves: $7.4 million,
Continental Automotive Guadalajara: $5.5 million
#5 Cummins: $44 million (engines)
#6 Germersheim Spare Parts: $36 million (Daimler spare parts?)
#7 Comau: $32 million (robots and automation)
#8 Visteon: $25.6 million (parts)
#9 New Process Gear: $20 million (transfer cases)
#10 Denso: $18.7 million (parts)
#11 Yazaki: $18.3 million (parts)
#13 U.S. Steel: $16 million (steel)
#18 Tata America: $11.3 million (IT outsourcing)
#24 Magna Powertrain: $8 million (parts)
#26 Shell Oil: $7.8 million (petrochemicals)
#41 Wackenhut: $7 million (security)
#40 Borg Warner: $5.5 million (parts)
#47 Robert Bosch: $5.1 million (parts)
#50 TRW Chassis: $5 million (parts)

There are a few companies on here which are a little surprising. You expect parts suppliers and steel companies, but a German spare parts distributor? Wackenhut? Tata?

Top secured creditors:

U.S. Treasure: $4.5 billion
JP Morgan: $1.6 billion
Chase: $1 billion
Morgan Stanley: $980 million
Citibank: $919 million

Chryslers assets: $39.3 billion

Current assets: $11.1 billion (only $1.9 billion in cash)
Property and equipment: $21 billion
Other: $7.2 billion (including $3.5 billion in "intangible")

Liabilities: $55 billion ($30.6 billion current liabilities, $24.5 long term)

Operating loss, previous 12 months: $17 billion (!).

Fiat ecoDrive

Fiat has an interesting gadget called ecoDrive. This is a free software program which analyzes your driving habits and makes suggestions how you can change them to save more fuel. What is cool is how it does it--the car will write vehicle data (likely signals: throttle position, engine speed, vehicle speed) as you drive to a USB stick you plug into the car's USB port. The PC program will then analyze this data.

More here.

Waiting For The Aftershocks...

Now, we wait to see what happens to the supplier base. With GM and Chrysler both shutting down for at least two months, if not longer, analysts are predicting wholesale carnage in the auto supplier business. From CNN Money:

"The aftershocks are going to be huge. We just haven't seen it yet," said Laurie Harbour-Felax, president of the Harbour-Felax Group, an auto research firm. She said she expects a couple of major suppliers with annual sales of over $1 billion to file for bankruptcy within the next week.

There is high risk of collateral damage to the automakers which are still building cars in this country, such as Honda, Toyota, and Ford. These companies may have to prop up failing suppliers with many millions of dollars of extra support to keep parts coming, which will weaken these companies even further. Ford is particularly vulnerable, because it is running on a cushion of borrowed cash, and has no easy way to borrow more, short of going to Obama.

GMAC and Chrysler-Fiat Mashup

One of the more interesting details about today's announcement by Obama about Chrysler's chapter 11 filing was the deal with GMAC to be Chrysler-Fiat's primary lender. Said Obama:

The path we're taking also involves steps to shore up
financing, because we cannot have viable car companies
without strong car financing companies. It's now clear
that Chrysler Financial -- the institution that finances
Chrysler cars and dealers -- would on its own require an
unacceptably large stream of taxpayer money to remain
viable -- and that's something I refuse to provide. And
that is why, as part of this agreement, GMAC, an
independent bank holding company that finances General
Motors, has agreed to finance new Chrysler sales. We will
be providing additional capital to GMAC to help unlock our
frozen credit markets and free up lending so that consumers
can get auto loans and dealers can finance their
inventories;

I wonder if this was in a way punishment to Chrysler Finance for refusing the $750 million TARP infusion because the execs didn't want to abide by the compensation rules? By refusing to prop up Chrysler Finance, Obama is really sticking it to Cerberus. As part of the requirement for GMAC becoming a bank, Cerberus must sell off most of its stake.

Using GMAC helps GM because GM still owns a large minority stake GMAC. And because GMAC is a bank holding company, it is easier for the government to support through the TARP.

It also may be a hint of Obama's future intentions. If Chrysler-Fiat fails, the groundwork for GM absorbing Chrysler may be laid here.

Reminder: Get Out Of Demand Notes

Update: I have attracted some hostile comments. To clarify my position:

No one who has a low tolerance for risk should be in GMAC Demand Notes. If you are using them for long term savings, get out. If you understand that you are chasing returns, and that this is similar to "junk bonds", and you have a diversified portfolio, have at it.

---

A friend of mine has some of his money in GMAC Demand Notes. I recently reminded him that this is crazy--they are basically unsecured loans to GMAC.

That's why they pay 4%, compared with FDIC insured rates of 2.25% at GMAC Bank.

With GM looking at a possible bankrupcy, and GMAC shaky due to mortgage exposure, no one should be in GMAC Demand Notes. The 1.75% extra yield is not worth the risk. If you have money that you don't mind investing in "junk" debt, buy a diversified junk bond fund or ETF,which gives you some protection against a single company default.

The same goes for Ford's Interest Advantage.

Comparing The Cash For Clunkers Bills

There are two competing "cash for clunkers" bills in the House.  One is more left-leaning, HR520, and the other is more populist, HR1550.  Both bills aim to do the same thing: encourage people to scrap older cars to buy new ones.  But they are very different in how they do so. 

In fine high school government class style, I will now contrast the two bills.

Key Differences:

Definition of a "high polluting" or "high consumption" automobile.

HR520: Average (city+highway weighted average) fuel economy of <18mpg.

HR1550: A car built before 2001.

Definition of a "fuel efficient automobile"

HR520: 2003MY or later, <$45,000 price, Tier II Bin 1-5 EPA emissions, 

25% better fuel economy than current or future CAFE standards.

HR1550: 2009-2011MY, <$35,000 price, Tier II Bin 5 emissions.

Voucher Amount:

HR520: New car voucher: $4,500 for 7 year old or newer car, 

$3,000 for 8-10 year old car, $2,500 for 11+ year old car. 

Used car voucher: $3,000, $2,000, $1500.

HR1550: $4,000 for US assembled 27 hwy MPG+, North America 30 hwy MPG+, 

or US light truck 24 hwy MPG+; $5,000 for US assembled 30 hwy MPG+, 

or US assembled work truck (registered commercial); 

$3000 for a NA assembled light truck with 24 hwy MPG+

Both bills require the old vehicle to be destroyed.  Parts other than "engine block and drivetrain" can be recycled, but the titled body, engine block and transmission must be destroyed.

HR520 is obviously geared towards fuel economy.  It doesn't care what kind of car you buy, as long as it is 25% better than the current requirements--which will greatly limit what kind of vehicles would qualify.  It also won't help you unless you are driving something which is relatively thirsty.  A typical case might be a trade-in of an old SUV or pickup truck.  

For example, the current standard is 27.5MPG (combined) for cars and 23.1MPG for trucks, so to qualify for the HR520 voucher now you would have to buy a passenger car that gets at least 34.4MPG or a light truck that gets at least 28.9MPG (combined).  The list of vehicles that would currently qualify is short: small and mid-sized hybrids such as Prius and Fusion, Smart, VW TDI, Toyota Yaris, Mini, Ford Escape Hybrid.  HR520 may give more benefit as time goes on, because more fuel efficient cars will appear, ahead of the tougher CAFE standards.

I think HR520 would have an unintended side effect of boosting the residual values of used large engined vehicles.  Cars that would have been worth $700 (like this one) would be worth much more, because they could be bought and titled just to qualify for the voucher.

 

HR1550 is designed to be more of a short term shot in the arm to the auto industry.  It very broadly defines what a "polluting" and "clean" vehicle is, because it isn't really about being green. It is only in force for several years, and heavily favors U.S. assembled or NAFTA vehicles.  This favoritism could cause trouble at the WTO, although it does include transplants such as Honda who have plants in the U.S.  

I prefer HR1550, because it would be better for the Detroit 3 in the short term.

A Prophecy Sadly Comes True

Back in the earlier days of this blog, circa 2005 (when I would get more real comments than spam), I posted that I thought GM should kill Pontiac.  At the time, Bob Lutz admitted that if Pontiac and Buick didn't pull their weight, GM would consider phasing them out.

I wrote:

Pontiac has no real identity--it is the "driving excitement" brand, but the cars are just not that exciting. Until recently, they were just warmed over, plastic clad versions of GM's platforms. Barely disguised Chevys and Buicks. 

This was before the G8 appeared, but also before the G5.  

The press is now reporting that GM will be killing Pontiac.  From Detroit News:

In its restructuring plan rejected by President Obama's autos task force last month, GM proposed shrinking Pontiac into a niche brand with one or two offerings. But the task force wants GM to cut deeper and faster, necessitating the decision to eliminate Pontiac, which leaves the automaker with four core brands: Chevrolet, Cadillac, Buick and GMC.

From a product portfolio, this makes sense.  Even with the life-support of Bob Lutz' heroic efforts to get some real excitement product for Pontiac (Solstice, G8, aborted Sport Truck), it was not enough to revive the brand, which was still being poisoned by its old-school badge engineered products.  Whatever street cred was gained by the Solstice and G8 was drained, zombie style, by the G5 (Cobalt), G3 (Aveo!), and Torrent (Equinox).

The big question now is, what happens to the dealers?  Most Pontiac dealers are multi-brand, using Pontiac as a complement to Buick and/or GMC.  Many smaller dealers will not survive without Pontiac.  How will the franchises be closed--through bankrupcy court?  Dealer lawsuits could swamp GM's emergence from bankrupcy court for years.  Or will Obama have to buy them out?  

Another Sign Of The Carpocalypse

(I hope Jalopnik doesn't go 1-800-Call-Sam on me for using "carpocalypse".)

One of the horseman of the carpocalypse rode through my workplace.  We used to have a cafeteria in our building which was run by a major catering company.  Between the layoffs and people cutting back on spending, they couldn't make money at it.  

Gone are all the made-to-order stations, and the hot entree line.  The cafeteria was changed into a convenience store--prepackaged sandwiches and salads, candy, chips, and bottled drinks.  Prices also went up.

The horseman left with heads hanging on his saddle.  Two managers, a chef, several cooks, and others lots their jobs.  I heard him rapping on the way out as he rode, "I'm rollin' down a hill, snowballin' gettin' bigger..."

Cutting Back

I am, thank God, employed.  

However, I don't have high confidence that I will be employed at the end of the calendar year. Considering the way the economy is going, I guess I have about a 50% chance, assuming that there is no rebound in car sales.  

So, my family has been cutting back to save some more cash for our rainy day fund.

Here are a few examples of ways that I have been saving money:

• We don't have cable or satellite TV anymore, we are using one of those digital TV converter boxes on our 10 year old analog TV to watch free over-the-air TV.  With rabbit ears.  It works, and besides, TV is over-rated.  Everyone could benefit from more reading time.
• I don't subscribe to the local paper, instead I read it for free online (sorry Detroit News and Free Press).  I get a few other magazines such as Consumer Reports for free as hand-me-downs from other family members.  There's some thrifty advice you'll never read in CR: hobo your Consumer Reports!
  
• My family has nearly stopped eating out.  Except for the occasional lunch with my co-workers, or a night where we don't have the will to cook anything.
• I have gotten used to driving no more than a couple of miles over the speed limit.  My mid-sized sedan with its <2.5l>
• I am stretching my oil changes out to 6,000 miles (manufacturer suggests 3,000 miles on my wife's car and 5,000 on mine).
• I have cut back on beer and wine consumption.  I used to take a bottle of beer or a glass of wine every day, now I find myself stretching it out by drinking on weekends.  I do have a weakness for scotch, though...
• I have cut back on how much meat I eat.  I think I eat red meat less than once a week now, and chicken or fish no more than a couple of times a week.  I admit this is also to improve my overall health, but you can save quite a bit of money this way.
• I have cut back on buying gadgets, except for ones that have an actual useful purpose.  For example, my old Dell laptop (Windows XP, P4) works fine, no need for one of the new ones--I just replace broken parts, which are cheap and plentiful, when something breaks.  I did buy a new digital camera, but I sold the old one on eBay so it was not a big investment.
• My wife and I don't give each other expensive gifts for birthdays and holidays, just small items to express the thought.  

If you think about your spending habits more carefully, you might be amazed at how many places you are spending that you could trim back, with a little bit of adjustment.

Of course, I'm one of thousands doing the same thing.  As a result, the economic death spiral accelerates.  Restaurants are closing, food producers are hurting, newspapers are going out of business, magazines are getting skinnier (even Consumer Reports).  

Jerusalem Pizza #1

Jerusalem Pizza, a famous local kosher pizza joint, is doing a very cool thing. They are auctioning off the rights to pie #1, post-Passover, with all proceeds going to a local food bank. As of this writing, the pizza is worth $200, but I would expect it to go a bit higher by close on Tuesday. Auction link.

The Galileoscope

A team of astronomers went to work to come up with a low cost telescope kit, that kids could put together to learn about how telescopes work, and then use to observe the night sky. The result is the very cool looking Galileoscope, which costs only $15 individually, and reportedly has pretty good optics. For example, they used lens designs which reduce chromatic aberration, something that Galileo did not have in his day.

There is a short video about it here:


Here is another

Fiat's Multiair System

Fiat has developed an interesting engine system for improving fuel economy. called Multiair. This is another type of variable valve timing and lift device. Fiat's trick is to use a hydraulic path from the cam to the valve, which goes through an electrically actuated valve. By modifying the fluid flow through the valve through the engine cycle, Fiat can implement variable valve timing and variable lift.

Here's a short video on the subject.

SF Mayor: Closet Engineer

San Francisco's mayor Gavin Newsom is, apparently, a secret engineer. He thinks designing cars that get big fuel efficiency numbers at an affordable price is easy. From the Detroit News:

"With respect to Detroit, it is not good enough to advance by 2012 an ambitious strategy of having 14 different models at GM of hybrids -- when hybrids are yesterday's technology," Newsom said at a conference here sponsored by Newsweek on the future of the auto industry.

He said automakers must move more quickly to plug-in hybrids, noting hybrids like the Toyota Prius have been on the market since 1997.

"We need a very dramatic shift in mentality of Detroit," Newsom said.

Hybrids are "yesterday's technology"?!?

They still aren't entirely affordable, and not every model can make a profit at market prices. The batteries are still very expensive, as well as the power electronics and drivetrain. Hybrids still haven't caught on in volume, with one model (Prius) breaking the 100,000 unit/year sales rate.

If the California legislature had any cojones, they would tax vehicles with poor fuel economy, or institute a high fuel tax. But they won't because then the voters would throw them out of work.

So instead, they shout at Detroit, "Build us a unicorn!", as if Detroit has unicorns stashed away in the basement of ever R&D lab, under digital lock and armed guard.

Things just aren't that simple.

Medtipster: Finding Cheap Drugs

A guy I know (a friend of a friend kind of thing) works for a company that has recently launched a prescription drug search engine. Called Medtipster, the service lets you search for drug prices in your geographical area.

For example, if you need some antibiotic for your strep throat, you can type in your prescribed medicine, the dose, and your ZIP code, and Medtipster will show you a list of pharmacies in your area, with prices.

This is a brilliant idea, because it allows for pharmacies to compete with one another directly on price.

The Warranty Insurance Signal

The Obama administration's decision to offer government backing for GM and Chrysler warranties is a clear signal of the direction they expect the companies to go in. If Obama thought that GM and Chrysler had viable business plan, with a good chance to restructure their obligations further, there would be no need for the warranty backstop.

What this signals is that Obama thinks there is a good chance that at least one of the companies will in fact wind up in bankrupcy. In which case, government backing of warranties is key to keeping public confidence high enough to keep the businesses running.

Does America Want The Tata Nano?

My answer: no, not in its original form.

As it is, the thing (probably) won't pass the NHTSA crash tests, not to mention the basic FMVSS standards. Once you add the airbags, mass, 5mph bumpers, and so on, the puny 33HP engine won't do at all. NHTSA will require stability control, so ABS will be required.

Americans also won't buy vehicles without radios. They'll want an automatic transmission.
Tata will have to go for a much larger motor, which will reduce the fuel efficiency and raise the price.

By the time the missing features are added, the car will cost $5000. You can buy a nice used Chevrolet Cobalt, Saturn Ion, Ford Focus, etc. for that kind of money. And you'll get a proven product, with wide dealer support.

Video: Early Nano Review

This is another video review of the Tata Nano, apparently done in India for CNBC.



An interesting detail: 0-60 kph takes about 10s, which translates to 37mph. 100kph (62mph) takes 35s!

The reviewer likes the rear spoiler and fake brake vents... I'm wondering why Tata bothered, they should have invested the money in more interior amenities.

Poor Man's Aptera

This. Is. Awesome.



Also see this one.

Aptera: Quirky Toy or Real Car?

Here is a short list of reasons why I think that the Aptera will be a low volume toy for the rich or idealistic, and not a mass market transportation appliance.

• It's a tricycle--less stable handling than a car of similar wheelbase. A blown tire at speed could be very tricky to handle, especially if it is the pusher wheel that blows. (Update: a reader states that the Aptera is now FWD, however the previous design was definitely a pusher not a puller. The sketch shown in the new brochure clearly shows a rear-mounted powertrain.)
  
• Very little clearance between wheel fairings and pavement. How will it handle potholes? Dirt roads?
• No spare tire. You get a inflation kit instead.
  
• No front or rear bumpers, minor scrapes may do severe damage.
• Sectioned windows may not let a Biggie soda and fries into the cabin
• You can have any color as long as it is white.
  
• May not meet tough side and front impact standards, probably won't interface well with conventional cars. High rear end may result in rear impacts flipping the Aptera forward.
• In a crash, deceleration will be vicious becuase the Aptera is so light. Multiple airbags will have to cushion the occupants, similar to how Smart does it.
  

Silly Mazda, No iPod Controls

By now, just about everyone in the U.S. has an Apple iPod, or one of the many competitors. Most automakers have rightly realized that allowing people to use their iPods in the car with a well integrated interface would be a big selling point. The best system I have tried is Ford's Sync, which will talk to an iPod (and most other mp3 players, as well as flash drives). I have also heard good things about Chrysler's MyGIG system. GM is offering it's PAL system on many of its vehicles, and it will eventually become ubiquitous.

I was looking into the new Mazda6 recently, and I was amazed that Mazda does not offer any digital iPod integration on this car. You can get a dealer installed add-on kit (for a hefty price), but all you get out of the box is the analog aux input. This is a real turn-off for me, in fact it is nearly a deal-killer.

Mazda just released a major update to the Mazda6, the should have put iPod integration at the top of the new feature list. Sure, bluetooth audio streaming is nice, but most people don't use it yet, and Apple doesn't support it yet.

Carnival Of Cars: Ides Of March Edition

Mark Tapscott, after doing yoemans work on Carnival Of Cars (which, you may remember, was started here) has been fairly silent lately. So, with a tip of the hat to Mark, I'm going to pick up CoC sporadically for a while.

Sooooo... let's set the choke and jump on the kickstart lever...

GM's Fastlane Blog discusses the concept of "well to wheels" emissions, or Life Cycle Analysis. According to Norm Brinkman, Argonne National Labs found that "E85 using ethanol made from corn reduced CO2 by about 20 percent compared with gasoline while ethanol made from cellulosic energy crops reduced CO2 by about 75 percent."

Surprising conclusion: the Acura TL is ugly.

At TTAC, Ken Elias writes on how to save the U.S. auto industry: "Lead, follow or get out of the way. The feds should force GM to follow Ford’s example. Chrysler should get out of the way. And then, with American talent and determination, our auto industry can once again be the envy of the world."

Edmund's Daily asks, "Who's cleaner with their car--guys or gals?"". Answer may surprise.

Edmund's posts a tasty bit of retro-TV video, a montage of The Fall Guy truck jumps. Oh, and there's some girl in a bikini, too.

Steve Parker bring us an LA Times story which tells how Obama has ended the controversial (especially if you are a Teamster) policy of allowing Mexican trucks to operate inside of 25 miles of the U.S. from Mexico.

Mark Tapscott wonders if Obamanomics means the end of personal mobility, and AutoProphet responds with a hearty "not dead yet!". Hey, I can link to myself if I want to, it's my CoC!

Over at the AUTOEXTREMIST, Peter De Lorenzo lays down several pages of napalm. Don't read the rant unless you are ready to buy a new monitor. An excerpt: "I’m tired of the auto industry being treated like an old broken down piece of meat or something that should be taken out back and shot. Our so-called “leaders” in Washington - particularly certain senators and representatives who should know better - have relegated an entire industry to the dust heap. And why? So a few idiot southern senators can tout their states as the “new” center of the auto industry? Or is it because Detroit and the center of industrial America don’t quite fit into the new “Green” world that Northern Californian politicians want to shove down our collective throats?" Preach it, brother!

Trollhattan Saab has shut down, but is being reborn over at Saabs United. There, rumors are reported that a Sheikh Maktoum may be interested in investing in Saab. Rock the casbah!

At IfItsGotAnEngine, a tale of smashing a piano, followed by learning how to repair pianos, all due to sloppy Tacoma loading.

Joe Sherlock drops lots if interesting right-of-center political commentary, not much new on cars lately.

Autoblog reports that researchers have invented self healing auto paint. Impregnated with chitosan, the paint will re-connect with itself to smooth out the scratch. A note to our Jewish readers, chitosan comes from crustacean shells, so licking your car would not be kosher. Especially if it is a VW.

Jalopnik claims that unemployed UAW guys will be retrained to make fashionable hats. I'd be fact-checking this one.

Never Buy a Salvage Car That Has Been "Clipped"

You need a car, and you don't have much money. You find a guy on Craigslist selling a salvage-titled vehicle which has been "expertly repaired, new front clip".

You don't want it.

A "clip", as the repair guys call it, is when a car is cut through the unibody, and a major portion (like, half of the front end) is welded on. On the outside, it looks fine, but underneath the exterior panels, what you have is non-contiguous steel welded together. It may be done well, but it may not be. Chances are, it isn't as strong as the original design, and in a serious crash, it may offer much less protection than a normal car would.

Automuse has some good posts on this subject.

A better bet: buy a car that needs a new engine, and then find a local mechanic to drop in a donor motor from a junk yard. I've seen decent chassis for sale for $500-$1000, that when combined with a junkyard motor, would be a servicable car.

Fuel-less Jeep?

I saw a Google text ad for Jeep on this blog today, which says:

• Loading...

Jeep hybrid vehicle

Learn More About the New Jeep Fuel-less Vehicles Today.

If you follow the link, you'll see a page about Chrysler's ENVI program, which includes a plug-in hybrid Jeep--which has a gasoline "range extender".

It's not a "fuel-less" Jeep.

It is also important to note that only one ENVI vehicle has been confirmed for production, and the rest are, as far as we know, just demonstration prototypes or concepts.

I don't understand why Chrysler is spending money advertising vaporware.

European Child Seat Testing Video

A fellow from Poland (I think) sent me a link to his YouTube page, which features various videos relating to child seat safety. This one is fascinating, it is a collection of European car seat tests. Note how the tests are done on a sled, using an actual car body (not just a moving platform like the NHTSA test). Midway, one of the seats fails, sending the little dummy spinning heels over head.

Depressing Scenes At The Motor Mall

I drove through the Troy motor mall today. If you are local, you know about it, it is a huge collection of car dealerships clustered together on Maple Road between Coolidge and Crooks. Every major brand has a dealership there, and some minor ones, including Aston Martin, Jaguar, Saab, Lamborghini, Maserati, Bentley.

It was so quiet you would have thought it was Sunday and not Friday afternoon. There were no customers walking any of the lots I could see. Even huge dealerships like Chevrolet and Honda didn't seem to have anything going on. The Saab store looked closed--I couldn't tell if the lights were on. Jaguar also. Even Honda and Toyota were still. Pontiac? Dead.

If people don['t buy cars, everyone will be broke, from top to bottom. The economic impact of the Troy Motor Mall is huge, when you consider the hundreds of salesman, mechanics, accountants, porters, truckers involved. And the restaurants surrounding it.

If you don't need a new car, that's fine. But maybe throw these guys an oil change or something to keep them fed, keep them working. Maybe let the dealer do your next regular service, or take it in for detailing.

But what is our Governor doing? According to Frank Beckman on WJR, she's working on a plan to double car registration fees and gasoline taxes. "In five years you'll be blown away!" she famously said. Now she's working on blowing us away.

Standalone Saturn?

There has much discussion recently in the press about the possible future of Saturn as a stand-alone auto company. One scenario has GM spinning off Saturn to the dealer network, and the independent company would source cars from wherever it could, and sell them as Saturns, much like Sears' Kenmore brand.

There are some major problems with this idea. First, Saturn would have to find suppliers of cars that would be worthy of being sold as Saturns. Speculation centers on Chinese automakers. But the issue here is, none of the Chinese, as far as we know, are ready to enter the U.S. market. Malcolm Bricklin's big plans to bring Chery here with Visionary Vehicles fell apart; so apparently did plans for Dodge to bring a Chery sourced Hornet. I had the chance to examine a Chery car at last year's NAIAS, and I can tell you it was not up to North American standards for fit and finish. Even if Chinese Saturns were within a couple of years of being ready for U.S. customers, they would have to be very good to win over a skeptical public.

The other problem is the issue of market capacity. Without big-brother GM adding its corporate heft to Saturn, it would be yet another small import car company, similar to Subaru, Mitsubishi, Suzuki, Kia, and the former Isuzu. It would be another little brand trying for customers, in a market that is oversaturated with nameplates.

Saturn's problem is that it's brand has ceased to represent anything unique. It was started as a moderately priced seller of small cars and wagons with a no-hassle sales experience. It was morphed into a mid-market to up-market seller of decent but unexceptional cars and crossovers (they even had a Saturn minivan!). The only constant was the no-hassle dealership. In this market, basing a car brand around a sales attitude is not going to cut it.

Unless a foreign carmaker buys the Saturn brand and distribution network, I really doubt that Saturn has a future as an independent company. And if someone does buy Saturn, they are going to have a hard time making money.

The Beginning Of The End Of Personal Mobility?

Mark Tapscot is feeling down on the auto business, judging by his latest blog post, here.

In it he points out that the leftist technocrats sweeping in with Obama ultimately want to reduce our use of personal vehicles, and force us to live packed more densely together in cities, and to rely on mass transportation. Their strategy to do this is to make gasoline expensive, keep the road system under-developed, and perhaps down the road tax our mileage.

No, the people now deciding what kind of products will be made by Detroit are working in Congress, the U.S. Department of Transportation and, most crucially, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Virtually to a man, these people hate privately owned cars and the individual autonomy they symbolize.

That means it's not just the kind of cars and trucks produced by the manufacturers' skunk works that are in Washington's cross-hairs, it's the very notion that all individual Americans ought by right be able to buy and drive the vehicle of their choice anywhere and anytime they choose.

I have blogged on this topic before, and i generally agree with what Mark says. However, there are some big roadblocks in the way of the anti-car left.

First, Americans love cars, and even if they can't have fire breathing 300HP V8's, they will find a way to get fun fast cars. If people get the idea that the bureaucrats are trying to take away the great American right-to-drive-what-I-want, there will be some nasty electoral surprises.

Second, Obama is now caught between two opposing forces, which are going to grind up his campaign agenda: the economy and labor unions on one hand, and the green lobby on the other. To keep his promise of saving jobs, and particularly of helping "working families", Obama must prop up the domestic auto industry. If it fails, it takes his economic promises with it. Propping up the auto industry means getting people to buy lots of shiny new cars. The days of cheap V8's are over, but the days of shiny new cars in every other driveway won't be.

Also, as part of the economic stimulus plan, a ton of money is going to be spent on "infrastructure", and some of that is actually going to go to road repair and construction.

Obama's not dumb, he knows that economic fear is what got him elected, and at the end of the day, I expect that he will throw the greens under the bus.

How To Watch A Movie On Your PC, The Fun Way

I recently discovered VLC. VLC (www.videolan.org) is an open source media player application which can handle just about any kind of file you can throw at it, such as VOB (DVD), DivX, XVid. One of the neat things it knows how to do is to play movies at higher rates than normal, with sound.

So, take your average pompous over written Hollywood crap-fest. You want to get through the story but you don't want to waste 2 1/2 hours to do it. Throw the DVD (or DivX, or whatever) into your computer, fire up VLC, and watch it at 2x or 3x. Slow it down for the important parts, the ones that actually advance the plot, then speed it back up again for the filler. There's also comedic value in watching people deliver their lines sounding like chipmunks.

Dissecting The Stimulus Bill

I spent a few minutes combing through the final version of the economic stimulus bill passed by the U.S. Congress (the huge PDF files are availible here). Here are some highlights, with regards to automotive and transportation related spending.

Divisiion A, Title IV: Energy

• $2 billion for grants for manufacturing advanced batteries and components, to be produced in the U.S.
• $3.4 billion for "Fossel Energy Research and Development". This includes $800 million for "clean coal" research, $1.5 billion for carbon capture and efficiency improvements, and money for geology research for carbon sequestration.
  
• $10 million for administrative costs for the Advanced Technology Vehicle Vehicles Manufacturing Loan program.

Division A, Title XII: Transportation

• $27.5 billion for highway, rail, and port infrastructure spending\
• $105 million earmarked for Puerto Rico highway program
• $550 million earmarked for transportation improvements on Indian Reservations and Federal Lands: $310 million for Indian reservation roads, $170 million for park roads, $60 million for forest highways, $10 million for the Refuge Roads program
• $1.3 billion for Amtrak
• $100 million to fund high fuel economy vehicles for the federal fleet, including gasoline hybrid vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles

Division B, Title 1

• Sec. 1008: new vehicle sales tax deduction: sales taxes on new vehicles are federally deductible, for vehicles which cost less than $49,500 and for taxpayers with income below $125,000 ($250,000 married joint filers).
• Sec. 1141: tax credit for plug in hybrid vehicles, $2,500 plus $417 for each kWH of battery capacity in excess of 5 kWH, maximum of $5,000. Phases out after the first 200,000 such vehicles sold after December 2009.
  
• Sec. 1142: tax credit for plug-in electric (battery electric) vehicles, 10% of the cost of such a vehicle, capped at $2,500. Vehicle must have battery capacity of at least 4 kWH, less is allowed if 2 or 3 wheels. 2 and 3 wheel vehicles qualify for the tax credit.
• Sec. 1143: tax credit for plug-in conversion kits, 10% of the cost of a conversion, not to exceed a cost of $40,000 (credit capped at $4,000).
  

A few observations. First, lots of pork in the highway portion, with earmarks specifically for Indian reservations and park roads.

The federal tax deduction for a new vehicle purchase sales tax is nice, but not a huge incentive. Consider: $20,000 vehicle, sales tax of 6%, deduction is $1,200. And if you are leasing, your tax deduction might only be half of that, or less, depending on the value of the lease.

The tax credits for plug-in hybrids, battery electric vehicles, and plug-in conversions are mostly window dressing. In the next few years, there won't be very many plug-in hybrds on the market, and certainly there won't be very many battery electric vehicles, in any volume. Eventually, enough products may enter the market to make this tax credit useful to more people, but it will take years to happen. Plug-in conversions are silly, in terms of their economics, and a 10% discount isn't enough to fix it, I don't see them ever being a high-volume business.

The $2 billion for advanced battery manufacturing grants is a good idea, this should provide a badly needed boost for the domestic battery industry, and should recover some lost jobs. A123 systems has already proposed a battery plant to be built in Michigan, pending government funds.

The "clean coal" money, and carbon sequestration projects are not likely to produce much useful result. I'm not sure there is such a thing, really, as "clean coal", at least not by the standards of the green lobby. Scrubbing coal emissions of CO2, and pumping it underground to hide it may be so expensive that it makes coal non-competitive as a power source. This, of course, may be the whole point. I would have liked to see more money for nuclear power subsidies instead.

My New Gadget: WD TV

Up to this point, my favorite a/v gadget has been my Roku Soundbridge wireless MP3 player. But the other day, I got a Western Digital TV HD Media Player, which is one of the coolest gadgets I have ever owned.


What the WDTV does is play just about any type of media file, from all kinds of video formats (DivX, Xvid, AVI, MP4, MKV, DVD ISO, etc.) to photos and music. It will play to your TV through composite video (RCA) or HDMI, and will output in SD or HD. It uses USB for storage, USB flash drives or USB HDDs, and can mount two of them at once. It is cheap, around $100.

The goodness here is in the details, and the simplicity of the device. The user interface is attractive, and easy. The menu response is snappy. The remote is clean, attractive, and works at wide angles to the unit. To play video, you rip your DVDs, or download your webisodes to a USB drive. You carry it over to your TV, plug it in, and after short boot-up time where it indexes the new media, you are in business. It even worked with an old USB 1.1 flash drive. Fast forward/rewind is smooth and responsive. You can zoom in, pan, and zoom out the view during playback. WD has issued several firmware updates since the product launched, which fixed bugs and added features. Firmware updates are easy.


I thought I wanted something like a Popcorn Hour A110, which would allow streaming from my PC to my TV, but they are fairly expensive ($200) and you have to supply the HDD yourself. Also, my previous experience with streaming videos from my PC (Hauppauge MediaMPV) was not stellar, with significant network buffering and transcoding delays. By removing the network capabilities, Western Digital came up with something that is, for the money, more than good enough.

*I'm not a paid promoter or official reviewer, just a happy customer.

House Proposes Plug-In Hybrid Tax Credits

In its version of the Obama economic stimulus package, the House of Representatives has included a disappearing tax credit for plug-in hybrid cars, similar to the confusing disappearing tax credit for non-plug in gasoline hybrid cars.

The credit consists of $2,500 per passenger car, plus $417 for each kWh of battery capacity over the first 4 kWh. The credit is limited to $7,500 for a vehicle with GVW less than 10,000lbs, but does increase to $10,000 for a vehicle with GVW up to 14,000lbs, and up to $15,000 for vehicles with GVW up to 26,000lbs.

The credit will start to phase out 3 months after 250,000 plug-in hybrids have been sold in the U.S., dropping to 50% for the next 6 months, then 25% for the next 6 months, and then going away completely.

So, for example, the Chevy Volt with its claimed 16 kWh battery would qualify for $2,500 + 12 * $417 = $7,500 (what a coincidence!)

SEC. 205. CREDIT FOR NEW QUALIFIED PLUG-IN ELECTRIC DRIVE MOTOR VEHICLES.

(a) Plug-in Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit- Subpart B of part IV of subchapter A of chapter 1 (relating to other credits) is amended by adding at the end the following new section:

`SEC. 30D. NEW QUALIFIED PLUG-IN ELECTRIC DRIVE MOTOR VEHICLES.

`(a) Allowance of Credit-

`(1) IN GENERAL- There shall be allowed as a credit against the tax imposed by this chapter for the taxable year an amount equal to the applicable amount with respect to each new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle placed in service by the taxpayer during the taxable year.

`(2) APPLICABLE AMOUNT- For purposes of paragraph (1), the applicable amount is sum of--

`(A) $2,500, plus

`(B) $417 for each kilowatt hour of traction battery capacity in excess of 4 kilowatt hours.

`(b) Limitations-

`(1) LIMITATION BASED ON WEIGHT- The amount of the credit allowed under subsection (a) by reason of subsection (a)(2) shall not exceed--

`(A) $7,500, in the case of any new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle with a gross vehicle weight rating of not more than 10,000 pounds,

`(B) $10,000, in the case of any new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle with a gross vehicle weight rating of more than 10,000 pounds but not more than 14,000 pounds,

`(C) $12,500, in the case of any new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle with a gross vehicle weight rating of more than 14,000 pounds but not more than 26,000 pounds, and

`(D) $15,000, in the case of any new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle with a gross vehicle weight rating of more than 26,000 pounds.

`(2) LIMITATION ON NUMBER OF PASSENGER VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS ELIGIBLE FOR CREDIT-

`(A) IN GENERAL- In the case of a new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle sold during the phaseout period, only the applicable percentage of the credit otherwise allowable under subsection (a) shall be allowed.

`(B) PHASEOUT PERIOD- For purposes of this subsection, the phaseout period is the period beginning with the second calendar quarter following the calendar quarter which includes the first date on which the total number of such new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicles sold for use in the United States after December 31, 2008, is at least 250,000.

`(C) APPLICABLE PERCENTAGE- For purposes of subparagraph (A), the applicable percentage is--

`(i) 50 percent for the first 2 calendar quarters of the phaseout period,

`(ii) 25 percent for the 3d and 4th calendar quarters of the phaseout period, and

`(iii) 0 percent for each calendar quarter thereafter.

`(D) CONTROLLED GROUPS- Rules similar to the rules of section 30B(f)(4) shall apply for purposes of this subsection.

`(c) New Qualified Plug-in Electric Drive Motor Vehicle- For purposes of this section, the term `new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle' means a motor vehicle--

`(1) which draws propulsion using a traction battery with at least 4 kilowatt hours of capacity,

`(2) which uses an offboard source of energy to recharge such battery,

`(3) which, in the case of a passenger vehicle or light truck which has a gross vehicle weight rating of not more than 8,500 pounds, has received a certificate of conformity under the Clean Air Act and meets or exceeds the equivalent qualifying California low emission vehicle standard under section 243(e)(2) of the Clean Air Act for that make and model year, and

`(A) in the case of a vehicle having a gross vehicle weight rating of 6,000 pounds or less, the Bin 5 Tier II emission standard established in regulations prescribed by the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency under section 202(i) of the Clean Air Act for that make and model year vehicle, and

`(B) in the case of a vehicle having a gross vehicle weight rating of more than 6,000 pounds but not more than 8,500 pounds, the Bin 8 Tier II emission standard which is so established,

`(4) the original use of which commences with the taxpayer,

`(5) which is acquired for use or lease by the taxpayer and not for resale, and

`(6) which is made by a manufacturer.

I Windows 7 Beta Test

For fun, I downloaded the Windows 7 Beta DVD ISO from Microsoft. I made a second partition on my second HDD, and installed it. It was painless, and didn't take long.

Windows 7 is, so far, running like a champ. It seems about as responsive as Vista, no worse in my unscientific opinion. It recognized all of my hardware, such as my TV tuner card, video card, and monitor, and is talking to my network. It is the "Ultimate" version, which means it comes with Windows Media Center, which is nice.

If you have about 16 gigabytes to spare, give it a whirl it isn't bad.