More Bad News For Toyota -- CR "Do Not Buy"

This is bad.

Consumer Reports tests vehicles for emergency handling by running them through some high speed dynamic maneuvers, such as a lane change.  When CR did this test to the Lexus GX 460 SUV (the luxury cousin of the 4Runner) the vehicle exhibited a very yaw angle.  This is good for sports cars, where the driver is assumed to have enough control to manage oversteer.  But on a high center of gravity SUV, a loose stability control tuning is dangerous.  Says CR:

We believe that in real-world driving, that situation could lead to a rollover accident, which could cause serious injury or death. We are not aware, however, of any such reports. 

...

In real-world driving, lift-off oversteer could occur when a driver enters a highway's exit ramp or drives through a sweeping turn and encounters an unexpected obstacle or suddenly finds that the turn is too tight for the vehicle's speed. A natural impulse is to quickly lift off the accelerator pedal. If that were to happen in the GX, the rear could slide around far enough that a wheel could strike a curb or slide off the pavement.

Because of this behavior, CR has given Toyota another black eye, with a rare and embarrassing "Do Not Buy" rating.  This puts the Lexus GX460 in the same company as the Suzuki Samurai.

The iPod touch rocks!

I am playing with my new iPod touch, and it is amazing how much you can do with this little thing. Even blog!

Edmunds $1,000,000 Unintended Acceleration Challenge

Edmunds has published the official rules for the promised $1,000,000 contest to see if anyone can create a plausible failure mode that results in unintended acceleration in a factory stock mass produced vehicle.  Rules here.

My prediction:  some college engineering students will come up with something similar to Prof Gilbert, where they will induce a specific multi-point failure.  Edmunds will deem it not "plausible", and will keep their money.

Me, I'm going to submit a photo of a guy stepping on the brake and gas pedals at the same time.  It is not following the rules, but, it probably explains a large part of the cases.

Post-Passover Pizza For The Hungry

My favorite Jewish Pizza joint, Jerusalem Pizza in Southfield, MI, is once again auctioning off the very first pizza made after the end of Passover to benefit the Yad Ezra food bank. eBay link here.

I am so in.

"Naughty Volvo"?

So Volvo has launched a web marketing theme of "naughty".  I went to Volvo's web site to look at it and well, videos of a Volvo stopping automatically to keep from hitting a pedestrian isn't exactly naughty.  When you try to dial up the naughty-ness, the video gets more shaky, the driver seems to be driving faster, and some naked (male) jogger runs through the frame for some reason.

Here's an idea, Volvo, if you want to get "naughty".

V60 wagon + Haldex AWD + manual transmission + direct injected turbo engine = V60R 

Then film the V60R running the Nurburgring, in the wet, with gobs of heroic drifting.  That might be naughty.

Ja?

Nooooooooooooooooo! Volvo to kill V70 wagon.

I can't believe it.

One of Volvo's iconic products was the turbo wagon.  It was a way to drive an honest wagon, and look and feel good doing it.

Now, according to a leaked document at Jalopnik, Volvo is going to drop the V70 wagon in the U.S., to concentrate on the butched up XC70. 

The more sedate midsize wagons will still be produced for other markets, so there is always a chance that if fashion swings back to car-based wagons, Volvo will reconsider.  Maybe someone will make a business out of lowering XC70's and tearing off their body cladding?

The Most Expensive Cars To Insure

I thought this was interesting. This is a list of the most expensive 2010 models to insure. I suppose if you have the riches to own a Porsche 911 GT2, which is a second or third car, you probably can afford almost $3,000 for insurance! Data courtesy of Insure.com.

The most expensive 2010 vehicles to insure
Rank	Make and Model	Style & Type	Cylinders	Avg. national premium
1	Porsche 911 Carrera GT2	2 Door Coupe	6	$2943.78
2	Mercedes S65 AMG	4 Door Sedan	12	$2863.03
3	Dodge Viper SRT-10	2 Door Coupe	10	$2851.89
4	Porsche Panamera Turbo AWD	4 Door Sedan	8	$2837.39
5	Dodge Viper SRT-10	2 Door Convertible	10	$2815.90
6	Mercedes CL600	2 Door Coupe	12	$2754.80
7	Audi R8	2 Door Coupe AWD	8	$2751.55
8	Porsche Panamera S	4 Door Sedan	8	$2744.78
9	Mercedes SL600	2 Door Convertible	12	$2715.86
10	Porsche 911 Carrera Turbo	2 Door Coupe AWD	6	$2706.04
11	Mercedes CL65 AMG	2 Door Coupe	12	$2699.74
12	BMW M6	2 Door Convertible	10	$2689.13
13	Mercedes S600	4 Door Sedan	12	$2667.48
14	Mercedes SL65 AMG Black Series	2 Door Convertible	12	$2655.15
15	Mercedes SL65 AMG	2 Door Convertible	12	$2653.53
16	Mercedes CL63 AMG	2 Door Coupe	8	$2646.92
17	BMW M6	2 Door Coupe	10	$2627.27
18	BMW 760Li	4 Door Sedan	12	$2565.59
19	Jaguar XKR Portfolio SC	2 Door Coupe	8	$2537.79
20	Jaguar XKR Supercharged	2 Door Coupe	8	$2533.48
Source: Insure.com, from a study commissioned by Insure.com from Quadrant Information Services

How Will Chrysler Survive?

According to many measures, Chrysler is building junky cars.  Today's junky cars are still miles ahead of the junky cars of decades ago, but still, Chrysler's products are not competitive.  The latest bad news comes from J.D. Power, which shows that Chrysler and its various brands are much worse than industry average for 3 years in service reliability.  

Industry Average: 155 problems (per 100 vehicles)

Chrysler: 166

Dodge:190

Jeep: 222

GM and Ford fare much better, most of their brands being above average.  Lincoln, Buick, Mercury, Ford and Cadillac score above average.

If Chrysler can't fix it's quality problems, how will it survive?  It doesn't have VW's Euro cachet or Mazda's Zoom Zoom (both well below average).  Chrysler needs to be a solid choice for the average mid-market family, or they are toast.

A Theory To Explain Sikes

This is purely my speculation.

According to Toyota, Mr. Sikes pressed his brake pedal hundreds of times during his "runaway Prius" event, but did not trigger the engine torque over-ride.

One possible explanation is that perhaps he had a foreign object, such as a soda bottle, wedged under his brake pedal.  In a panic and unable to slow his car down, he wasn't able to remove it until the end.

I once had this actually happen to me, when a water bottle from under my seat worked its way forward, and lodged itself under my brake pedal.  It was a little hairy, but I was able to kick it out of there before getting in trouble.

Giving Sikes this bit of leeway, we're still stuck with the other problem: how did the Prius run away to begin with?   According to NHTSA and Toyota, his floor mat was not clipped to the floor, but was not bunched up under the throttle pedal, either.  But they were unable to move the mat into a position that would have pinned the pedal.  And his Prius was not subject to the throttle pedal recall.

Did Sikes get a stuck throttle and an obstructed brake pedal?  Or did he make the whole thing up for publicity?

Electric Car Consumers Want 90mi for $2,000

According to a survey by Consumer's Union of 1750 car owning adults, the typical (well, median) consumer wants a plug-in car that gets 90 miles of range or more, and wants to pay $2,000 or less over the price of a similar gasoline car for the technology.  More tellingly, consumers earning less than $50,000 (close to the median family income in the U.S. of about $52,000) were much less willing to pay a premium for a BEV.  

"Among consumers that would consider an electric car, the median extra amount that they would pay was $2,068. But 20 percent would pay nothing additional, while an equal share would pay at least $5,000 extra. Across major demographic segments, only one difference was statistically significant: 46 percent of consumers earning $50,000 or more annually would pay at least $2,000 extra versus just 27 percent of those earning less."

However, the current premium is estimated to be something like $10,000 for enough battery to move you 100 miles.  Which means that unless gasoline becomes very expensive, it is going to be a long time before electric cars have any significant volume.

Story here.

Video: Lincoln LS vs Rock Slide

That's one way to trash a Lincoln LS.

http://www.breitbart.tv/caugth-on-video-driver-doesnt-notice-massive-rock-slide-covering-tn-highway/

Huge BMW Poster in WSJ

If you get the Wall Street Journal, you may have gotten an insert in today's paper, which folds out into a huge BMW poster. This is an impressive piece of advertising, about 3' x 4' unfolded.

If you are a BMW fan, you should hunt down a copy of the 3/17 WSJ and check it out.

Beware The Craigslist Ebay Motors Escrow Scam

The famous Craigslist (or any other source) Ebay Motors escrow scam is still going strong. I am still getting many search engine hits from it, and even after two years, it remains my single most popular post.

In short, it works like this:

• You answer an ad which has a car for sale that seems "too good of a deal to pass up" or perhaps too good to be true.
• The seller says the car is in storage, and will be shipped to you. The stories vary, lately the most common one is that a military guy has to sell his car because he is shipping out, and he has to due it long distance.
• The seller demands that you send Western Union or a similar non-traceable payment to an "Ebay Motors Agent", using the Ebay Motors Protection Program. They even send you an official looking email.
• If you make the mistake of sending money, you are hosed. There is no Ebay Motors Vehicle Protection program. There are no agents, and Ebay does not use Western Union.

Remember:

• Never pay anyone for goods using Western Union, it is probably a scam
• There is no Ebay Motors Vehicle Protection escrow program
• Ebay Motors does not use agents
• Ebay does not accept Moneygram or Western Union payments directly
• If the story seems fishy (vehicle in storage, guy overseas) it probably is fake

Useful Links:

• Ebay Motors information on the scam.
• Western Union fraud page
• Moneygram fraud page
• Internet Crime Complaint Center

Is Sikes Another "Balloon Boy"?

Recenly reborn TTAC and Jalopnik have been digging around to see what they can find out about Mr. Sikes, the "I can't stop my Prius" guy, and what they are finding isn't pretty.  It looks more and more likely that Sikes is a gold-digger.

But even if he is... how did he manage to burn his Prius brakes?  Shouldn't that be impossible?

TTAC story here, Jalopnik here.

Videos Show Prius Will Stop

Leith Toyota's (Raleigh, NC) service director, Rodney Britt, has posted a home made video starring Shawn Witek, general manager.  Witek shows how you can stop a 2008 Prius which has its throttle pedal mashed to the floor, using the neutral gear selector, or using the brakes, at 80mph.  You can watch it here.

In the video, the car has no problem going into neutral at 80mph, even if the pedal is pinned to the floor.  The car also has no problem slowing down if the brakes are depressed, again while driving 80mph ("myl'n ahwer") with the throttle pinned.

And on Youtube, this video also shows what happens when you press the brake and gas a the same time on a Prius while moving.  Again, no problem slowing down. 

In both videos, you can clearly hear the engine noise cut out when the brakes are pressed.  That's because the 2008 Prius already has a sort of brake override software, in the sense that the hybrid powertrain controls system doesn't see a need to waste gas if the driver is trying to brake.  So if you hit the brakes and the throttle at the same time, the hybrid will reduce engine torque.

So what happened with Sikes in California?  How did his Prius keep going, while he was supposedly standing on the brake pedal?

Top Gear on Prius

An old Top Gear episode from Top Gear. Clarkson hates the 1st gen Prius so much, he has "Billy Bob" get all WWII on one. See 2:43 for the HK G3, followed by a Browning .50 machine gun. Nice.

Yep, Runaway Prius Guy = Idiot

I wonder, maybe this guy set this up as a stunt?

"Neibert told Sikes after the CHP caught up with him to shift to neutral but the driver shook his head no. Sikes told reporters he didn't go into neutral because he worried the car would flip."

From The Detroit News: http://www.detnews.com/article/20100310/AUTO01/3100387/1148/rss25#ixzz0hmUtw0Hc

Runaway Prius = Driver FAIL

The runaway Prius story is just full of FAIL.

The driver didn't know he could put the car in neutral with a flick of his wrist, or push and hold the starter button to kill the engine.

The police officer which talked to him over the loudspeaker told him to use the emergency brakes--did the police officer know to suggest neutral or killing the engine?

There is no excuse for a sticky throttle pedal.  But there is also no excuse for not knowing how to control your vehicle.  It is lucky that in this case, somehow the ignorance didn't cause injury or death.

U.S. Census Money Waste

Today I got a letter in the mail with official markings on it, U.S. Census. But it seemed awful skinny to be a census form. Sure enough, it was a letter informing me that in a week, I will get a census form, and that it is very important that I fill it out.

What a stupid waste of money and trees.

Toyota Vs. ABC: The Empire Strikes Back

It took The Galactic Empire^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H Toyota a couple of weeks, but they finally have issued a formal rebuttal to the hack job that ABC and Professor Gilbert did to them on TV.   You can read the details here, but basically, it is the same conclusion that I came to (and posted about here).

Gilbert spliced into several wires on the throttle pedal harness, shorted two of them together through a resistance, and then shorted them to sensor power.  In other words, he induced a multi-point failure, with very specific parameters.  If he had done the splicing in a different order, or shorted different wires, or used a different resistor, it would not work.

Gilbert proved that you can re-wire a car to misbehave.  He didn't come even close to proving that this is what is going on in the field.  

ABC proved that it would rather stir the pot and get people excited, while providing ammo for trial lawyers, than report responsibly on a highly technical issue.  They even threw in some faked tachometer footage to make things look more dramatic--hilariously, with all the telltales illuminated, showing a vehicle at rest, with doors open, and in park.

I would like to see ABC and Gilbert now defend their piece, by explaining how it is relevant to the Toyota untended acceleration issue.

Troy Chrysler Dealership Tricks

At the Troy motor mall, there used to be a Chrysler dealership, Birmingham Chrysler Jeep ("Birmingham's In Troy!"). They lost their franchise during the Chrysler quick-rinse bankruptcy. Now, something strange has happened. The former Saturn store in the same area has apparently picked up a Chrysler-Jeep-Dodge franchise.

This was formerly Suburban Saturn

I don't get it. Chrysler had an established and apparently successful dealership right on Maple road. Why would they force them closed, and then open up a new one around the corner?

Birmingham Chrysler Jeep is now Troy Autoworld, and is trying to scrape by on used car sales and service. They also are selling Wheego neighborhood electric vehicles, which look like an electrified Smart.

Volt Sighting: Detroit Zoo

I took the family to the Detroit Zoo today, to take advantage of the warm sunny weather, and here is what I spotted in the parking deck: a Volt powertrain calibration vehicle.


What surprised me the most about seeing the Volt up close was its size. This is a compact car, not much (if any) larger than a Prius. It was parked next to a current model Malibu, on one side, and a large crossover utility on the other, and it looked small. The GM employee who was driving the car had installed an infant seat in the back behind the driver, and it took up all the space, touching the driver's seat. The car also seemed noticeably short, and according to Edmunds, the Volt is 3" shorter than the Prius.

The volt is definitely going to be a technical triumph, but if it comes in at $35,000+ retail, I don't see how it will be a commercial success.

In Defense Of ETC, Part 3

A comment on my previous post, by user "Ming", pointed out the trend of the total number of unintended acceleration complaints to NHTSA over the years.

2000: 1415
2001: 1345
2002: 1460
2003: 1446
2004: 1426
2005: 1112
2006: 878
2007: 876
2008: 456
2009: 251

Now, what is interesting in this is that over this period, the number of complaints were cut dramatically, even though the number of new cars on the road increased. Also, and this is key, in the year 2000 many cars were still using mechanical throttle systems.

By 2009, almost all cars now use electronic throttle systems.

Yet, unintended acceleration complaints were reduced dramatically.

Another point of proof, that ETC systems are at least as safe, if not more safe, than mechanical throttles!

Unintended Acceleration Round 3: NPR Does The Math

NPR posted a nice widget on their web site, here, where you can check the statistics on unintended acceleration complaints.  Most importantly, the data is normalized, so you can see which carmakers are having more complaints than their market share and which are getting less.   

Here is a snapshot for 2009. Notice that the worst three carmakers, in terms of complaints per 100,000 vehicles, are Toytoa, VW, and BMW.  Also notice that VW/Audi is more over-represented even than Toyota is!

model year 2009

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration identified 251 complaints alleging sudden acceleration and related problems for vehicles in model year 2009. A breakdown by vehicle make follows.

Vehicle make	Complaints	Market share	Share of complaints	Sales	Complaints per 100,000 veh.
TOYOTA-LEXUS	133	16.7%	53.0%	1,773,609	7.5
VOLKSWAGEN-AUDI	34	2.8%	13.6%	295,778	11.5
FORD	17	15.3%	6.8%	1,620,949	1.1
BMW	14	2.3%	5.6%	241,711	5.8
HONDA-ACURA	14	10.9%	5.6%	1,151,309	1.2
GM	9	19.6%	3.6%	2,075,748	0.4
NISSAN	7	7.3%	2.8%	770,719	0.9
CHRYSLER	5	8.8%	2.0%	931,860	0.5
SUBARU	4	2.0%	1.6%	216,268	1.9
HYUNDAI	3	4.1%	1.2%	434,656	0.7
MAZDA	2	2.0%	0.8%	207,787	1.0
VOLVO	1	0.6%	0.4%	61,488	1.6
KIA	1	2.8%	0.4%	300,019	0.3

2011 Mustang Fuel Economy

Ford just announced that the 2011 Mustang with 3.7L V5 will get 19mpg city and 29mpg highway, with the manual transmission. This is due in part to the use of newer engine technologies such as variable cam timing, and they haven't resorted to direct injection or turbocharging (yet).

I went on Edmunds and did some digging, to make a chart of how the base Mustang engines have evolved over the years. It is a great example of how far powertrains have improved in the last 15 years.




Since the 1990's the Mustang base powertrain has gotten dramatically more powerful, while keeping about the same fuel efficiency. Now, for 2011, both power and fuel economy are improved. This same pattern is going to repeat on other vehicles going forward. Instead of just ramping up performance, automakers are going to be looking at efficiency, while trying to preserve power and affordability as best they can.

The good old ICE still has a long way to evolve before it is put out to pasture.

Read At Joe's

One of my favorite autobloggers is Joe Sherlock. He writes well, usually has interesting things to say, and has been doing it for a long time. Go check him out, here.

Chrysler Naming Fun

Rumour has it that the Chrysler Sebring midsized mediocrity will be renamed the 200C when relaunched under Fiat rule.  This is funny because the 300 is a large car, and the upcoming 500 will be a very small car.  

Chrysler clearly needs a consistent naming convention, and as an engineer I am ready to help.

Chrysler cars should be named in terms of 1/(size).  Therefore, since the 300C is a large car, and the 500 will be a very small one, the car-formerly-known-as-Sebring should be named the 400.

Unintended Acceleration Round 2

News reports are out that that NHTSA is still getting Unintended Acceleration complaints from Toyotas which have apparently been repaired with the various recall fixes.

What is going on?

I think that what we are seeing is normal cases of UI, which happen to all brands of vehicles, amplified through the media and the Toyota recall frenzy.  In other words, people hitting the wrong pedal, or both pedals.

It is unreasonable to expect that Toyota's repairs will drive the number of UI cases to zero.  Instead, it should reduce them to "background" rates, similar to the other major automakers.

Spyker Interview

This morning Paul W. Smith (WJR 760AM) interviewed Spyker CEO Victor Muller about the acquisition of Saab, and the plans going forward.

A few interesting bits, from memory:

"We are going to return Saabishness to Saab" ... "We are going to restore the Saab DNA."

"Saab buyers are the most educated in the market, with 67% of them having a college degree or better"

"Saab buyers are very loyal.  We don't need new customers.  We just need to get our Saab customers back, who left for some reason."

"When Saab customers left, they didn't go to Volvo, they went to Audi and BMW mostly"

"Saab only needs to sell 100,000 vehicles to be a great company.  Audi sells 70,000 units in the US, out of 1,000,0000 produced, Saab can sell 50,000 out of 100,000, and make money!"

"We have 200 dealers in the US, and that is about right.  They have been very supportive."

I don't see Saab becoming a major player, after the damage that GM did to the brand, but it doesn't sound like Spyker expects them to.  It sounds like they expect to be a niche product, sitting somewhere between Volvo and Audi.  We won't see any more lame badge-jobs like the 9-2 or 9-7, so Saab will be limited to just a couple of products for a while.  

Brake-Throttle Override And Two Foot Driving

Amazing as it sounds, there are people who drive automatic transmission cars with two feet.  They typically drive with the left foot resting gently on the brake pedal, with the belief that they can brake more quickly than if they move their right foot from the gas to the brake.  They of course neglect the possibility that they will overlap, and will reduce the effectiveness of the brakes.

It is likely that NHTSA will mandate, or Congress will pass a law which requires that automakers who use Electronic Throttle Control Systems (ETC) must have brake override logic, similar to the software update that Toyota is releasing as part of its recent unintended acceleration recall.   

As this feature becomes more widespread, two-foot driving will become a little bit more difficult.  The two-foot driver will find that if they overlap brake and throttle pedal application, that they will get abrupt reduction in engine torque, and therefore more abrupt deceleration, as the ETC system slams the throttle closed to reduce engine power.  In order to drive smoothly, they will have to take the time to lift off of the throttle before pushing the brake, giving up much of the perceived advantage of two-foot driving.

Wow! AdBlock on Chrome!

Wow.  I was sure that Google would not allow adblocking extensions to run on Chrome, but amazingly, they do.  Chrome + AdBlock is now my favorite browser, because it is fast.

No Wonder They Beat The U.S. Team!

After they beat the U.S. women's hockey team, the team Canada celebrated in the rink with beer and cigars.  This explains how they beat the U.S. team--they are actually men!  News story here.

Actually, the medal ceremony for women's hockey was very nice, as the mostly Canadian crowd changed USA! USA! after the American team was awarded the silver medal.  It was generous, considering that the Canadians had been beaten in men's hockey by the U.S.

In Defense of ETC Part 2; Professor Gilbert's Test

In his testimony to the House Oversight Committee, Professor David W. Gilbert described how he was able to induce unintended acceleration in a Toyota ETC system.  You can read his remarks here. Gilbert was hired by Safety Research Strategies, a "safety advocacy" group which is primarily a research and consulting firm for trial lawyers and plaintiffs.

Gilbert's testing discovered a hole in Toyota's diagnostics for their ETC system.  To fool the system, he had to induce a highly unlikely failure.  Toyota's system uses two pedal position sensors, which are separated by several centimeters, which have signal wires coming out on a common harness.  Gilbert shorted the signal wires of the two sensors together through a resistor.  By carefully choosing the resistor, he was able to find a short combination which the Toyota diagnostics did not detect.  However, a short alone was not enough to cause unintended acceleration.  To do that, Gilbert had to take the shorted wires, and then add another connection, to the power wire on the harness.  When both sensor signal lines were shorted to the power line, then the throttle opened because the large voltage was interpreted as a command from the pedal.  Because the two signals were within range of one another, the diagnostics didn't find it.

To induce this purely electronic unintended acceleration event, Gilbert had to induce two faults into the system.  In the business, this is called a multi-point failure.  It is similar to saying, "what if your gas tank was leaking and your wheel fell off, creating sparks".  Because the sensors are separated in the throttle pedal housing, the only feasible way for this failure to occur, in my opinion, is for the wiring harness to be cut or frayed such that the signal wires are exposed, and electrically shorted, but not cut through.

Toyota hired respected engineering consulting house Exponent to do an outside check of their ETC fault robustness.  The full report is here. Exponent bought several different Toyota vehicles, spliced into the ETC wiring harness, and inserted various types of faults, using engineering data provided by Toyota.  All of the faults that Exponent inserted were quickly detected by Toyota's system.  The difference in methodology from Gilbert's testing was that Exponent limited their faults to the more likely type, single-point failures, where a single wire or signal was compromised. 

In short, Gilbert proved that by manipulating the system just so, he could break it.  But his failure mode is not something that is remotely likely to occur in the real world.  Gilbert produced what Safety Research Strategies, ABC News, and some congress members wanted: a dramatic demonstration.  But he didn't find a smoking gun.

Rep Burton: "Why are the pedals different?"

Rep Burton (R-Ind): "Why are the two pedals different?" (Actually holding up pedals)

Toyoda: "Sometimes suppliers design the pedal and Toyota approves them, and we used two different suppliers".  

Toyoda: "Customer misuse is a factor"

Oops.  Toyoda just stated that one of four aspects of the runaway acceleration problem is "customer misuse".  He's going to catch hell for that, later!

Toyota ETC Videos

Edmunds' Inside Line blog has posted a 17 minute long video from Toyota which explains in some detail how their ETC system works.  It is at a layman's level, so you don't need an engineering degree to understand what they are showing.

Link

In Defense of ETC Part 1

When I get a chance to review Prof. Gilbert's report on how he fooled Toyota's Electronic Throttle Control (ETC) system, I will post comments.

For now, I'd like to take a few lines to defend ETC in concept.

ETC has some significant advantages over mechanical throttle linkages.

• Fuel economy: actual throttle flow can be optimized based on operating conditions, and pedal position is used to infer driver intent.  For example, someone with a shaky foot can be "smoothed out". 
• Mechanical simplicity, weight, and cost: Using ETC means you can get rid of the idle air control valve, throttle cable, and cruise control actuator.  Fewer things to break.
  
• Robustness: ETC systems have built in algorithms for unusual conditions.  For example, the throttle plate can be shaken very quickly by the motor, as an "ice breaker", if the throttle plate is iced.  There are no cables to bind up or corrode, no exposed return springs to break.  The system has independent CPUs which monitor the throttle plate position and pedal position 100s of times a second, with fail-safe algorithms to shut the thing down if something unexpected happens.  ETC has redundant sensors, which are used to check that the information coming into the ECUs is reliable and self-consistent.  In a mechanical throttle system, the only failsafe is the driver's foot--if the thing is stuck, you pump it and pray it gets unstuck.
  

Trial lawyers try to sow FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) about "complex electronic systems", and throw out scary "what if" scenarios, to try to win cases and big money.  But engineers know that complex systems are designed, tested, and validated over many years before being released into production, and are tested for every conceivable failure.  ETC systems must be qualified under a range of temperatures and wide band electromagnetic interference testing.  Failure modes, such as cut wires, broken sensors, damaged actuators, etc. are all tested using a process called FMEA (failure mode effects analysis).  FMEA was designed by NASA as a way to think through a system's reliabilty to pin down possible ways it could break; then tests are designed to validate the system under those conditions.

Is it possible that Toyota screwed up the FMEA, or cut corners, and has a dangerous-but-rare condition with their ETC system?  It is possible.  But given the excellence of Toyota's engineering, I would be surprised. 

Toyota's Lentz Weeps

Toyota USA's Lentz, relating how his 30 year old brother was killed in a car accident, got teary eyed while answering a question for Rep. Rush (D-Ill).

Why Stuck Throttles Are So Dangerous: Loss Of Vacuum

Something that hasn't been discussed widely is the role of engine vacuum in the unintended acceleration issue.

The reason that you only have one chance to brake a car which is experiencing a stuck throttle or unintended acceleration is that at wide-open-throttle, the engine is not generating any manifold vacuum.   Without manifold vacuum, on most cars, the hydraulic brake booster will ingest air as the brakes are applied.  Pumping the brakes will fill the booster very quickly.  Without vacuum, the brake pedal will be very hard, and it will require a huge amount of brake pedal force to stop the car.

Rep. Buyer Defends Toyota

Rep Steven Buyer (R-Ind) is coming to the defense of Toyota.  Which makes sense, the Subaru plant which builds Toyotas is in his district.  He points out that work by Prof. Gilbert is commissioned by an "advocacy" organization which is being funded by trial lawyer. 

Toyota: Gilbert's Test "Sabotage"

Toyota's lawyers told the House Oversight Committee members that the test that Prof. Gilbert did to the Toyota electronic system was "sabotage".  Professor Gilbert is testifying that the short circuit he introduced could happen in real life.

Gilbert: Toyota Electronic Throttle Diagnostics Poor

The gist of Professor Gilbert's testimony to the House Oversight Committee is that Toyota's electronic throttle sensing system is poor, in that the redundant signals are insufficiently different from one another, so that the diagnostic system can be fooled into thinking that a short circuit between them is a driver request for wide-open throttle, and not a fault state. He also just testified that other automakers would catch the fault that he induced "right away".

"If I would have done that on a Buick or a Honda... it would have set a DTC or code".

Texting While Driving = Death

The new issue of Autoweek sports a graphic and effective full page ad, to warn of the dangers of texting and driving.

See it for yourself here.

Canada Beating US at Olympics! (Per Capita)

This isn't automotive, but being an engineer, I have to say something.

There is a lot chatter and ink flying about how the U.S. is beating Canada in the winter Olympics medal count.

But not really.

Canada is outplaying us if you normalize the data.  Who cares about total medal counts?  Better measures are in residents/medal and GPD/medal.

Let's compare some countries using Wikipedia's demographic information and current medal count:
U.S.A: 310,000,000 people, GDP $14,400,000,000,000, 24 medals, 7.7E-8 Medals/Resident, 1.6E-12 Medals/$ GDP
Germany: 80,000,000 people, GDP $2,900,000,000,000, 18 medals, 2.3E-7 Medals/Resident, 6.2E-12 Medals/$ GDP
Norway: 4,800,000 people, GDP $257,000,000,000, 12 medals, 2.5E-6 Medals/Resident, 4.7E-11 Medals/$GDP
Canada: 34,000,000 people, GDP $1,300,000,000,000, 9 medals, 2.6E-7 Medals/Resident, 6.9E-12 Medals/$GDP
Slovenia: 2,050,000 people, GDP $54,600,000,000, 3 medals, 1.5E-6 Medals/Resident, 5.5E-11 Medals/$GDP

Per capita and per $ GPD, Canada is clearing beating the U.S.  They are winning about 3.4x the number of medals per resident, and  4.3x the number of medals per $ of GDP. 

But Norway is really cleaning up.  It is winning medals at a rate 32x the U.S., per capita, and 30x the U.S. rate per $ of GDP.

Future Collectible Cars

Over at Jalopnik, Matt H. asks, "What's the best cheap future collector car?"

My answer: something like a Mustang GT, or Chevrolet Camaro, or Dodge Challenger, running a V8.  Even a Pontiac G8.

Because when NHTSA, EPA, and CARB's CO2 and fuel economy regulations kick in full bore, only rich guys will be able to afford a good fashioned American V8.  Naturally aspirated, big displacement, big torque.

Geocache Challenge Update: WINNER!

We have a winner!

Reader Francis found the goods today, and sent along a cell phone pic to prove it. He correctly identified the secret word, and also, the old Sierra Nevada beer bottle someone left near the tree trunk.

Geocache Challenge Update 3: Corrected

I went back to check the cache today, and it was still there. I did notice though that the GPS location was somewhat different from when I originally measured it.

The new (and hopefully correct) GPS location of the prize is N42*33.547, W83*12.596

Also, more hints about where it is:

Follow the right side of the field, to where you can see the power transformer.
Follow the path until it comes to a "T".
The prize is hidden behind a large fallen log about 20" off of the trail from the "T".

Shooting Down Mosquitos

A research group called Intellectual Ventures Lab has built a working prototype of a machine which detects, identifies, and shoots down mosquitos in flight.  Amazing.

Geocache Challenge Update

I got an email from a guy who went to the park looking for the TopGear goodies, but couldn't find them. Last I checked, the stuff was still there, as of Sunday. I'll check again this weekend.

Here's a hint: the cache is within a 15' radius of the T shaped intersection which forms the last waypoint. It isn't buried, but it is not in "plain view" from the trail.

The True Danica

I'm not following Danica Patrick much, but there is a neat interview with her in Vanity Fair, here.

If somehow, inexplicably, you do win tomorrow, promise us that you'll moon the other racers and scream, "Suck it, losers!"

(Laughs.) I think it'd be really funny if I started winning all the time and became really annoyingly girly and put on lipstick before every race and started wearing heels and stuff like that. I probably can't back any of this up, because I'd feel really uncomfortable and self-conscious and I'd never follow through. But it's a funny idea.

I like her more after reading the interview... her whole bikini-girl-racer image, and the stupid dot com commercials she is doing make her seem very superficial.  The interview shows a much more interesting person.

Subaru CVT

Scott Burgess writing at the Detroit News (article here) reviews the Subaru Legacy with CVT.

Really, the only way to sanely drive the Legacy Limited is with the paddle shifters. If you don't use them and leave the car in automatic mode, it's confusing and uncomfortable.

When you launch the vehicle, its revs tend to jump and then stay too high. Because the shift points are gone, something feels off -- though the Legacy is performing exactly the way it was designed. The CVT searches for the most efficient engine speed to produce the power it needs -- this is one of the reasons CVTs provide better gas mileage.

Paddle shifters, faux shift points, on a CVT? 

It's Subaru's attempt to make customers feel at home.  But it's silly.  Instead of trying to fool you into thinking you are driving an automated manual gearbox, automakers should take the time to educate consumers about the benefits of CVTs.  And if the unit whines, or the engine revs high longer than people are used to, perhaps what is needed is better noise management.  Once people get used to the idea of CVTs, they won't be annoyed at their feel.

Personally, I'm a bigger fan of the dual clutch automated manual designs.  They have very good efficiency, and avoid some of the serviceability questions of CVTs.  And they can have "real" paddle shifters.

The AutoProphet GeoCache Challenge, Week 2

No one has claimed my TopGear DVD geocache prize, so we are on to week 2. As far as I know, it is still there (I will check on it later today).

The coordinates are listed in the original post, here.

The Truth About Tango

Winding Road has a write-up of the Commuter Cars Tango T600 electric car, which was available for test-drives at the 2010 Detroit Auto Show.

What WR doesn't bother telling us is that the Tango is not really a production vehicle.  It is sold as a kit.  After you plunk down your $108,000, you get a shipment of a rolling chassis.  Followed later by a shipment of missing parts that you can bolt on yourself, or have one of the Commuter Cars guys come out and install for you.

And if you live outside of the Spokane, WA area, where do you go if you need your Tango serviced?  I assume you will have to have a Commuter Cars rep fly out to you.

There is currently one street legal, mass produced, electric-only vehicle in the U.S., and that is the Tesla Roadster.  Everything else is, at this point, either vapor-ware or a toy.

Transportation Secretary: "Stop Driving Recalled Toyotas"

According to Reuters', Transportation Secretary Roy LaHood told the House Appropriations Committee on Transportation:

LaHood says his advice to owners is to "stop driving it. Take it to a Toyota dealer because they believe they have a fix for it."

Wow. 

LaHood needs to be more careful what he says--he could cause some real public relations problems, for himself and for Toyota.

While sticky throttle pedals are a serious problem, the failure mode is rare, and completely controllable if the driver pays attention and keeps a cool head.

To repeat:

1) Press brakes firmly
2) Put the gear selector in N
3) Pull over

If 2) is a problem for some reason, you can turn off the motor.

Rocket Sled Man Fails Darwin Award Attempt

In the Oakland Press this morning, a 62 year old Independence Township man almost killed himself in glorious drunk fashion. 

After consuming "unknown quantities of alcohol", he strapped on a motorcycle muffler which he had stuffed full of gunpowder, match-heads, and gasoline.  He also put on a motorcycle helmet and a cape.  Then he had a friend light his fuse, and started down the hill on a plastic orange sled, no doubt after saying something like "Hey guys! Watch this!"

It did not end well.  But, he didn't quite make it onto the Darwin Awards--he's in the hospital.

Link.