Unintended Acceleration Round 3: NPR Does The Math

NPR posted a nice widget on their web site, here, where you can check the statistics on unintended acceleration complaints.  Most importantly, the data is normalized, so you can see which carmakers are having more complaints than their market share and which are getting less.   

Here is a snapshot for 2009. Notice that the worst three carmakers, in terms of complaints per 100,000 vehicles, are Toytoa, VW, and BMW.  Also notice that VW/Audi is more over-represented even than Toyota is!

model year 2009

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration identified 251 complaints alleging sudden acceleration and related problems for vehicles in model year 2009. A breakdown by vehicle make follows.

Vehicle make	Complaints	Market share	Share of complaints	Sales	Complaints per 100,000 veh.
TOYOTA-LEXUS	133	16.7%	53.0%	1,773,609	7.5
VOLKSWAGEN-AUDI	34	2.8%	13.6%	295,778	11.5
FORD	17	15.3%	6.8%	1,620,949	1.1
BMW	14	2.3%	5.6%	241,711	5.8
HONDA-ACURA	14	10.9%	5.6%	1,151,309	1.2
GM	9	19.6%	3.6%	2,075,748	0.4
NISSAN	7	7.3%	2.8%	770,719	0.9
CHRYSLER	5	8.8%	2.0%	931,860	0.5
SUBARU	4	2.0%	1.6%	216,268	1.9
HYUNDAI	3	4.1%	1.2%	434,656	0.7
MAZDA	2	2.0%	0.8%	207,787	1.0
VOLVO	1	0.6%	0.4%	61,488	1.6
KIA	1	2.8%	0.4%	300,019	0.3

2011 Mustang Fuel Economy

Ford just announced that the 2011 Mustang with 3.7L V5 will get 19mpg city and 29mpg highway, with the manual transmission. This is due in part to the use of newer engine technologies such as variable cam timing, and they haven't resorted to direct injection or turbocharging (yet).

I went on Edmunds and did some digging, to make a chart of how the base Mustang engines have evolved over the years. It is a great example of how far powertrains have improved in the last 15 years.




Since the 1990's the Mustang base powertrain has gotten dramatically more powerful, while keeping about the same fuel efficiency. Now, for 2011, both power and fuel economy are improved. This same pattern is going to repeat on other vehicles going forward. Instead of just ramping up performance, automakers are going to be looking at efficiency, while trying to preserve power and affordability as best they can.

The good old ICE still has a long way to evolve before it is put out to pasture.

Read At Joe's

One of my favorite autobloggers is Joe Sherlock. He writes well, usually has interesting things to say, and has been doing it for a long time. Go check him out, here.

Chrysler Naming Fun

Rumour has it that the Chrysler Sebring midsized mediocrity will be renamed the 200C when relaunched under Fiat rule.  This is funny because the 300 is a large car, and the upcoming 500 will be a very small car.  

Chrysler clearly needs a consistent naming convention, and as an engineer I am ready to help.

Chrysler cars should be named in terms of 1/(size).  Therefore, since the 300C is a large car, and the 500 will be a very small one, the car-formerly-known-as-Sebring should be named the 400.

Unintended Acceleration Round 2

News reports are out that that NHTSA is still getting Unintended Acceleration complaints from Toyotas which have apparently been repaired with the various recall fixes.

What is going on?

I think that what we are seeing is normal cases of UI, which happen to all brands of vehicles, amplified through the media and the Toyota recall frenzy.  In other words, people hitting the wrong pedal, or both pedals.

It is unreasonable to expect that Toyota's repairs will drive the number of UI cases to zero.  Instead, it should reduce them to "background" rates, similar to the other major automakers.

Spyker Interview

This morning Paul W. Smith (WJR 760AM) interviewed Spyker CEO Victor Muller about the acquisition of Saab, and the plans going forward.

A few interesting bits, from memory:

"We are going to return Saabishness to Saab" ... "We are going to restore the Saab DNA."

"Saab buyers are the most educated in the market, with 67% of them having a college degree or better"

"Saab buyers are very loyal.  We don't need new customers.  We just need to get our Saab customers back, who left for some reason."

"When Saab customers left, they didn't go to Volvo, they went to Audi and BMW mostly"

"Saab only needs to sell 100,000 vehicles to be a great company.  Audi sells 70,000 units in the US, out of 1,000,0000 produced, Saab can sell 50,000 out of 100,000, and make money!"

"We have 200 dealers in the US, and that is about right.  They have been very supportive."

I don't see Saab becoming a major player, after the damage that GM did to the brand, but it doesn't sound like Spyker expects them to.  It sounds like they expect to be a niche product, sitting somewhere between Volvo and Audi.  We won't see any more lame badge-jobs like the 9-2 or 9-7, so Saab will be limited to just a couple of products for a while.  

Brake-Throttle Override And Two Foot Driving

Amazing as it sounds, there are people who drive automatic transmission cars with two feet.  They typically drive with the left foot resting gently on the brake pedal, with the belief that they can brake more quickly than if they move their right foot from the gas to the brake.  They of course neglect the possibility that they will overlap, and will reduce the effectiveness of the brakes.

It is likely that NHTSA will mandate, or Congress will pass a law which requires that automakers who use Electronic Throttle Control Systems (ETC) must have brake override logic, similar to the software update that Toyota is releasing as part of its recent unintended acceleration recall.   

As this feature becomes more widespread, two-foot driving will become a little bit more difficult.  The two-foot driver will find that if they overlap brake and throttle pedal application, that they will get abrupt reduction in engine torque, and therefore more abrupt deceleration, as the ETC system slams the throttle closed to reduce engine power.  In order to drive smoothly, they will have to take the time to lift off of the throttle before pushing the brake, giving up much of the perceived advantage of two-foot driving.

Wow! AdBlock on Chrome!

Wow.  I was sure that Google would not allow adblocking extensions to run on Chrome, but amazingly, they do.  Chrome + AdBlock is now my favorite browser, because it is fast.

No Wonder They Beat The U.S. Team!

After they beat the U.S. women's hockey team, the team Canada celebrated in the rink with beer and cigars.  This explains how they beat the U.S. team--they are actually men!  News story here.

Actually, the medal ceremony for women's hockey was very nice, as the mostly Canadian crowd changed USA! USA! after the American team was awarded the silver medal.  It was generous, considering that the Canadians had been beaten in men's hockey by the U.S.

In Defense of ETC Part 2; Professor Gilbert's Test

In his testimony to the House Oversight Committee, Professor David W. Gilbert described how he was able to induce unintended acceleration in a Toyota ETC system.  You can read his remarks here. Gilbert was hired by Safety Research Strategies, a "safety advocacy" group which is primarily a research and consulting firm for trial lawyers and plaintiffs.

Gilbert's testing discovered a hole in Toyota's diagnostics for their ETC system.  To fool the system, he had to induce a highly unlikely failure.  Toyota's system uses two pedal position sensors, which are separated by several centimeters, which have signal wires coming out on a common harness.  Gilbert shorted the signal wires of the two sensors together through a resistor.  By carefully choosing the resistor, he was able to find a short combination which the Toyota diagnostics did not detect.  However, a short alone was not enough to cause unintended acceleration.  To do that, Gilbert had to take the shorted wires, and then add another connection, to the power wire on the harness.  When both sensor signal lines were shorted to the power line, then the throttle opened because the large voltage was interpreted as a command from the pedal.  Because the two signals were within range of one another, the diagnostics didn't find it.

To induce this purely electronic unintended acceleration event, Gilbert had to induce two faults into the system.  In the business, this is called a multi-point failure.  It is similar to saying, "what if your gas tank was leaking and your wheel fell off, creating sparks".  Because the sensors are separated in the throttle pedal housing, the only feasible way for this failure to occur, in my opinion, is for the wiring harness to be cut or frayed such that the signal wires are exposed, and electrically shorted, but not cut through.

Toyota hired respected engineering consulting house Exponent to do an outside check of their ETC fault robustness.  The full report is here. Exponent bought several different Toyota vehicles, spliced into the ETC wiring harness, and inserted various types of faults, using engineering data provided by Toyota.  All of the faults that Exponent inserted were quickly detected by Toyota's system.  The difference in methodology from Gilbert's testing was that Exponent limited their faults to the more likely type, single-point failures, where a single wire or signal was compromised. 

In short, Gilbert proved that by manipulating the system just so, he could break it.  But his failure mode is not something that is remotely likely to occur in the real world.  Gilbert produced what Safety Research Strategies, ABC News, and some congress members wanted: a dramatic demonstration.  But he didn't find a smoking gun.

Rep Burton: "Why are the pedals different?"

Rep Burton (R-Ind): "Why are the two pedals different?" (Actually holding up pedals)

Toyoda: "Sometimes suppliers design the pedal and Toyota approves them, and we used two different suppliers".  

Toyoda: "Customer misuse is a factor"

Oops.  Toyoda just stated that one of four aspects of the runaway acceleration problem is "customer misuse".  He's going to catch hell for that, later!

Toyota ETC Videos

Edmunds' Inside Line blog has posted a 17 minute long video from Toyota which explains in some detail how their ETC system works.  It is at a layman's level, so you don't need an engineering degree to understand what they are showing.

Link

In Defense of ETC Part 1

When I get a chance to review Prof. Gilbert's report on how he fooled Toyota's Electronic Throttle Control (ETC) system, I will post comments.

For now, I'd like to take a few lines to defend ETC in concept.

ETC has some significant advantages over mechanical throttle linkages.

• Fuel economy: actual throttle flow can be optimized based on operating conditions, and pedal position is used to infer driver intent.  For example, someone with a shaky foot can be "smoothed out". 
• Mechanical simplicity, weight, and cost: Using ETC means you can get rid of the idle air control valve, throttle cable, and cruise control actuator.  Fewer things to break.
  
• Robustness: ETC systems have built in algorithms for unusual conditions.  For example, the throttle plate can be shaken very quickly by the motor, as an "ice breaker", if the throttle plate is iced.  There are no cables to bind up or corrode, no exposed return springs to break.  The system has independent CPUs which monitor the throttle plate position and pedal position 100s of times a second, with fail-safe algorithms to shut the thing down if something unexpected happens.  ETC has redundant sensors, which are used to check that the information coming into the ECUs is reliable and self-consistent.  In a mechanical throttle system, the only failsafe is the driver's foot--if the thing is stuck, you pump it and pray it gets unstuck.
  

Trial lawyers try to sow FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) about "complex electronic systems", and throw out scary "what if" scenarios, to try to win cases and big money.  But engineers know that complex systems are designed, tested, and validated over many years before being released into production, and are tested for every conceivable failure.  ETC systems must be qualified under a range of temperatures and wide band electromagnetic interference testing.  Failure modes, such as cut wires, broken sensors, damaged actuators, etc. are all tested using a process called FMEA (failure mode effects analysis).  FMEA was designed by NASA as a way to think through a system's reliabilty to pin down possible ways it could break; then tests are designed to validate the system under those conditions.

Is it possible that Toyota screwed up the FMEA, or cut corners, and has a dangerous-but-rare condition with their ETC system?  It is possible.  But given the excellence of Toyota's engineering, I would be surprised. 

Toyota's Lentz Weeps

Toyota USA's Lentz, relating how his 30 year old brother was killed in a car accident, got teary eyed while answering a question for Rep. Rush (D-Ill).

Why Stuck Throttles Are So Dangerous: Loss Of Vacuum

Something that hasn't been discussed widely is the role of engine vacuum in the unintended acceleration issue.

The reason that you only have one chance to brake a car which is experiencing a stuck throttle or unintended acceleration is that at wide-open-throttle, the engine is not generating any manifold vacuum.   Without manifold vacuum, on most cars, the hydraulic brake booster will ingest air as the brakes are applied.  Pumping the brakes will fill the booster very quickly.  Without vacuum, the brake pedal will be very hard, and it will require a huge amount of brake pedal force to stop the car.

Rep. Buyer Defends Toyota

Rep Steven Buyer (R-Ind) is coming to the defense of Toyota.  Which makes sense, the Subaru plant which builds Toyotas is in his district.  He points out that work by Prof. Gilbert is commissioned by an "advocacy" organization which is being funded by trial lawyer. 

Toyota: Gilbert's Test "Sabotage"

Toyota's lawyers told the House Oversight Committee members that the test that Prof. Gilbert did to the Toyota electronic system was "sabotage".  Professor Gilbert is testifying that the short circuit he introduced could happen in real life.

Gilbert: Toyota Electronic Throttle Diagnostics Poor

The gist of Professor Gilbert's testimony to the House Oversight Committee is that Toyota's electronic throttle sensing system is poor, in that the redundant signals are insufficiently different from one another, so that the diagnostic system can be fooled into thinking that a short circuit between them is a driver request for wide-open throttle, and not a fault state. He also just testified that other automakers would catch the fault that he induced "right away".

"If I would have done that on a Buick or a Honda... it would have set a DTC or code".

Texting While Driving = Death

The new issue of Autoweek sports a graphic and effective full page ad, to warn of the dangers of texting and driving.

See it for yourself here.

Canada Beating US at Olympics! (Per Capita)

This isn't automotive, but being an engineer, I have to say something.

There is a lot chatter and ink flying about how the U.S. is beating Canada in the winter Olympics medal count.

But not really.

Canada is outplaying us if you normalize the data.  Who cares about total medal counts?  Better measures are in residents/medal and GPD/medal.

Let's compare some countries using Wikipedia's demographic information and current medal count:
U.S.A: 310,000,000 people, GDP $14,400,000,000,000, 24 medals, 7.7E-8 Medals/Resident, 1.6E-12 Medals/$ GDP
Germany: 80,000,000 people, GDP $2,900,000,000,000, 18 medals, 2.3E-7 Medals/Resident, 6.2E-12 Medals/$ GDP
Norway: 4,800,000 people, GDP $257,000,000,000, 12 medals, 2.5E-6 Medals/Resident, 4.7E-11 Medals/$GDP
Canada: 34,000,000 people, GDP $1,300,000,000,000, 9 medals, 2.6E-7 Medals/Resident, 6.9E-12 Medals/$GDP
Slovenia: 2,050,000 people, GDP $54,600,000,000, 3 medals, 1.5E-6 Medals/Resident, 5.5E-11 Medals/$GDP

Per capita and per $ GPD, Canada is clearing beating the U.S.  They are winning about 3.4x the number of medals per resident, and  4.3x the number of medals per $ of GDP. 

But Norway is really cleaning up.  It is winning medals at a rate 32x the U.S., per capita, and 30x the U.S. rate per $ of GDP.

Future Collectible Cars

Over at Jalopnik, Matt H. asks, "What's the best cheap future collector car?"

My answer: something like a Mustang GT, or Chevrolet Camaro, or Dodge Challenger, running a V8.  Even a Pontiac G8.

Because when NHTSA, EPA, and CARB's CO2 and fuel economy regulations kick in full bore, only rich guys will be able to afford a good fashioned American V8.  Naturally aspirated, big displacement, big torque.

Geocache Challenge Update: WINNER!

We have a winner!

Reader Francis found the goods today, and sent along a cell phone pic to prove it. He correctly identified the secret word, and also, the old Sierra Nevada beer bottle someone left near the tree trunk.

Geocache Challenge Update 3: Corrected

I went back to check the cache today, and it was still there. I did notice though that the GPS location was somewhat different from when I originally measured it.

The new (and hopefully correct) GPS location of the prize is N42*33.547, W83*12.596

Also, more hints about where it is:

Follow the right side of the field, to where you can see the power transformer.
Follow the path until it comes to a "T".
The prize is hidden behind a large fallen log about 20" off of the trail from the "T".

Shooting Down Mosquitos

A research group called Intellectual Ventures Lab has built a working prototype of a machine which detects, identifies, and shoots down mosquitos in flight.  Amazing.

Geocache Challenge Update

I got an email from a guy who went to the park looking for the TopGear goodies, but couldn't find them. Last I checked, the stuff was still there, as of Sunday. I'll check again this weekend.

Here's a hint: the cache is within a 15' radius of the T shaped intersection which forms the last waypoint. It isn't buried, but it is not in "plain view" from the trail.

The True Danica

I'm not following Danica Patrick much, but there is a neat interview with her in Vanity Fair, here.

If somehow, inexplicably, you do win tomorrow, promise us that you'll moon the other racers and scream, "Suck it, losers!"

(Laughs.) I think it'd be really funny if I started winning all the time and became really annoyingly girly and put on lipstick before every race and started wearing heels and stuff like that. I probably can't back any of this up, because I'd feel really uncomfortable and self-conscious and I'd never follow through. But it's a funny idea.

I like her more after reading the interview... her whole bikini-girl-racer image, and the stupid dot com commercials she is doing make her seem very superficial.  The interview shows a much more interesting person.

Subaru CVT

Scott Burgess writing at the Detroit News (article here) reviews the Subaru Legacy with CVT.

Really, the only way to sanely drive the Legacy Limited is with the paddle shifters. If you don't use them and leave the car in automatic mode, it's confusing and uncomfortable.

When you launch the vehicle, its revs tend to jump and then stay too high. Because the shift points are gone, something feels off -- though the Legacy is performing exactly the way it was designed. The CVT searches for the most efficient engine speed to produce the power it needs -- this is one of the reasons CVTs provide better gas mileage.

Paddle shifters, faux shift points, on a CVT? 

It's Subaru's attempt to make customers feel at home.  But it's silly.  Instead of trying to fool you into thinking you are driving an automated manual gearbox, automakers should take the time to educate consumers about the benefits of CVTs.  And if the unit whines, or the engine revs high longer than people are used to, perhaps what is needed is better noise management.  Once people get used to the idea of CVTs, they won't be annoyed at their feel.

Personally, I'm a bigger fan of the dual clutch automated manual designs.  They have very good efficiency, and avoid some of the serviceability questions of CVTs.  And they can have "real" paddle shifters.

The AutoProphet GeoCache Challenge, Week 2

No one has claimed my TopGear DVD geocache prize, so we are on to week 2. As far as I know, it is still there (I will check on it later today).

The coordinates are listed in the original post, here.

The Truth About Tango

Winding Road has a write-up of the Commuter Cars Tango T600 electric car, which was available for test-drives at the 2010 Detroit Auto Show.

What WR doesn't bother telling us is that the Tango is not really a production vehicle.  It is sold as a kit.  After you plunk down your $108,000, you get a shipment of a rolling chassis.  Followed later by a shipment of missing parts that you can bolt on yourself, or have one of the Commuter Cars guys come out and install for you.

And if you live outside of the Spokane, WA area, where do you go if you need your Tango serviced?  I assume you will have to have a Commuter Cars rep fly out to you.

There is currently one street legal, mass produced, electric-only vehicle in the U.S., and that is the Tesla Roadster.  Everything else is, at this point, either vapor-ware or a toy.

Transportation Secretary: "Stop Driving Recalled Toyotas"

According to Reuters', Transportation Secretary Roy LaHood told the House Appropriations Committee on Transportation:

LaHood says his advice to owners is to "stop driving it. Take it to a Toyota dealer because they believe they have a fix for it."

Wow. 

LaHood needs to be more careful what he says--he could cause some real public relations problems, for himself and for Toyota.

While sticky throttle pedals are a serious problem, the failure mode is rare, and completely controllable if the driver pays attention and keeps a cool head.

To repeat:

1) Press brakes firmly
2) Put the gear selector in N
3) Pull over

If 2) is a problem for some reason, you can turn off the motor.

Rocket Sled Man Fails Darwin Award Attempt

In the Oakland Press this morning, a 62 year old Independence Township man almost killed himself in glorious drunk fashion. 

After consuming "unknown quantities of alcohol", he strapped on a motorcycle muffler which he had stuffed full of gunpowder, match-heads, and gasoline.  He also put on a motorcycle helmet and a cape.  Then he had a friend light his fuse, and started down the hill on a plastic orange sled, no doubt after saying something like "Hey guys! Watch this!"

It did not end well.  But, he didn't quite make it onto the Darwin Awards--he's in the hospital.

Link.

The Toyota Pedal Fix

If you go to Toyota's media site, you can see this graphic which shows the change they are making in their pedal.
The toothy thing is a pedal feedback mechanism which uses friction to give the pedal a certain amount of resistance at the end of its travel.

What Toyota is doing is putting a shim in behind the pedal arm, to limit its travel. Which means that unless they reprogram their ECU to interpret the new position as WOT (wide open throttle), customers won't ever be able to get to WOT--instead they'll top out at 97% or whatever the new maximum travel point corresponds to.

So in addition to installing "precision cut steel", I would expect Toyota to also have to spend a few minutes on each car to reprogram the throttle pedal calibration curves. Unless, of course, the extra few percent of travel isn't needed.

The Autoprophet Geocache Challenge (SOLVED)

Update: SOLVED! We have a winner.

To promote the new season of Top Gear, BBC America sent me some stuff to give away to my readers. They didn't say how I had to do it, so instead of a boring lottery, I have decided to do a geocache.
The Top Gear swag is hidden inside a brown cardboard box, wrapped up in a plastic bag to keep it dry. The prize includes a 2010 Top Gear calendar, a "Stig" coffee mug, and best of all, the complete season 11 and season 12 DVD sets, 6 discs in all.

The Rules:

• The first person who finds the stuff keeps it.
• If you find the booty, please send me an email at TheAutoProphet"at"gmail.com and let me know that you got it. Please mention the secret word (included with the prize).
  
• If no one finds it in two (2) weeks, I will give the whole pile to the Salvation Army for charity
• Extra points: find the bottle of beer that someone left behind (not me) near my cache.
  

The Location:

The goods are located in Oakland County, MI, in a little known municipal park. The box will not be buried, but will be mildly camouflaged.

The cache is not far from the trail, you don't have to do much bush-wacking.

Now, GO GO GO!

Apple iPad

I have been reading about the newly revealed Apple iPad, and I am thinking, "do not want".  Here's why:

• No on-board memory card slot
• No Adobe Flash support
• Closed OS--all apps must come from Apple store
• No camera--this thing should be able to do Skype out of the box
• No on-board USB ports
• No multi-tasking

This is because Apple decided to make the iPad basically an over-sized IPod Touch, not a shrunken Macbook.  Myself, I'd be more interested in a scaled-down Macbook.

I predict this will be a disappointment for Apple, until they fix some of these flaws.  Most people who would be interested in an iPad already have an iPhone, they won't see a compelling reason to get one.

The Fluid Flush Scam

A family member took her compact SUV for its 100,000 mile service recently, and the service manager attacked her with the dreaded "fluid flush gauntlet".  He showed her samples of her transmission oil, power steering oil, brake fluid, and coolant, and tried to sell her about $500 worth of fluid flushes.  He also tried to convince her to change out her rear differential fluid, which is rather expensive, because it comes from nearly extinct whales.

This is a scam.  It is pure profit for the shop.

You should not get any fluid changed on your car that is not recommended by the owner's manual, unless you have special circumstances.  More on those below.

She checked her owner's manual, and while the transmission fluid and coolant were recommended, there was no mention of power steering fluid, rear differential, or brake fluid.

And here's why: all three of these systems are sealed.  In the power steering and brake fluid systems, the fluids are primarily hydraulic working fluids, although they do have some lubrication functions.  If the systems are still well sealed, and are working properly, you may not need to touch them for more than 150,000 miles.

Part of the trick is to show you that the fluids are "dirty".  This is scary, but not necessarily meaningful.  I asked a guy I know, who is involved in the design of power steering systems.  He told me that power steering fluid picks up carbon black from the hoses, and that you can't really tell a 5,000 mile fluid from a 50,000 mile fluid based on color.  His professional advice was, "don't touch it unless you are getting noise from the system or hard steering".  And if you don't want to change it, he recommended using a turkey baster to remove as much from the reservoir as you can, replacing the rest with clean fluid.  "The flushes the service places sell are junk!" he said,"A waste of money."

So when should you change your fluids?

If the owner's manual says it is time to do it, or if something is wrong, or clearly contaminated.  If large particles are obvious in your fluid reservoir, or if there is water in the oil, or if the system has failed in some way, or is making strange noises. 

Cool Cover Song

Wow, I like.  5FDP does "Bad Company".

"I was born, a shotgun in my hand"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVTn6qciodo

Toyota Wins Crown Of Shame

I think we can all now agree that Toyota has won the crown of "most severe quality issue" from the previous champions, Ford and Firestone.  Toyota is going to lose hundreds of millions of dollars on this, both directly and indirectly.  Directly, through replacement costs, and lost sales while the plants are down, and indirectly through their damaged quality reputation. 

P.S.A.: Pregnant Women Should ALWAYS Wear Seatbelts

Yesterday, a pregnant woman and her unborn child died on I-94 in metro Detroit.  From the Detroit Free Press:

A 23-year-old pregnant woman died in a car crash on I-94 on Tuesday morning, along with her baby, who was ripped from her body along the freeway.

Shardae Homesly of Detroit was not wearing a seat belt as she rode in the front seat of her SUV, driven by her fiancé, Michigan State Police Sgt. Linda Mys said.

The couple were heading westbound near Morang on Detroit's east side shortly before 11:45 a.m. The fiancé, whose name wasn't released, swerved to avoid hitting a van that began merging into the SUV's path in the far-right lane.

Think about that for a moment.  The baby was "ripped from her body". 

Some pregnant women refuse to wear seatbelts because they are worried that it will "hurt the baby". 

Forget that.  If you are unrestrained, and get in an accident, you and your baby could die. 

The safe way for pregnant women to wear seatbelts is to raise the shoulder belt slightly, so that it crosses the chest above the belly, and to pull the lap belt down a little so it crosses over the hips below the belly. 

Eggs On Windshields: Urban Legend

I got a chain email the other day, warning about a new carjacking tactic. Bad guys would throw eggs at a persons windshield, and then follow them. The person would supposedly have to stop, because windshield wipers would smear the egg around and make it impossible to see.

According to Snopes, this is pure urban legend. Link.

Chevy Volt Driven!

Finally, GM has allowed someone in the press to drive a Chevy Volt with the gas engine enabled and write about it.   Paul E. at DetroitBureau writes,

In normal mode, Volt delivered reasonable acceleration, launching from 0 to 60 in what we estimated to be around 10 seconds.  But switched to Sport mode we got an unexpected jolt.  Electric motors deliver maximum wheel-spinning torque the moment they start to turn, and with Volt, that translates into a very sporty launch feel and 0 to 60 times of about two seconds quicker.

Farah had intentionally given our prototype Volt just a limited charge, just enough so that we could experience the vehicle on battery power then have it automatically transition to extended-range mode – a fancy way of saying its inline-four-cylinder internal combustion engine fired up.  The transition was all but seamless and even with the engine running, the cabin remained surprisingly quiet.

Good news--the gas engine is quiet when recharging the batteries, even in Michigan winter conditions.

You can read the whole thing here.

Oh, and 100 points if you can find the typo, with which Eisenstein accidentally demotes the Volt to a Mitsubishi product.

McFly's Hyundai eBay Nightmare

User "McFly" of Hyundai fan site Gencoupe.com won a used Genesis coupe on eBay in an non-reserve auction for $16,000.  The dealer, Glenn Hyundai of Lexington KY, screwed up and forgot to put a reserve price on the car, which is worth closer to $19,000.  Since the auction is supposed to be a legally binding contract, McFly called and tried to finish the deal.   However, the dealer refused to sell the car at the eBay price.

McFly is giving the dealer hell, doing wide ranging internet publicity, approaching news outlet, as well as his state's vehicle sales commission to get justice.  You can read the whole mess here.

Politics

THANK YOU MASSACHUSETTS!

CFL Dissapointment

I have been using the spiral-type CFL bulbs in a few places at home, such as in the basement. But recently I broke one of these off by knocking something into it. I replaced it with a new fully encased bulb from GE, which has the flourescent tube and electronics encased in a round glass bulb, looking very much like an over-sized traditional lightbulb.

I'm not happy with this product at all. It takes a very long time to warm up and come up to full brightness, so long that you really notice it. When it is cold, and you first turn it on, it is very dim and gives off a small amount of purplish light.

After about 1min or so it is bright, which seems like an eternity.

I wish VU1 would hurry up with their claimed "next best thing" ESL bulb.

On Comment Spam

A quick note to all you comment spammers who keep dribbling your business all over my blog. I watch the comments, and when I see spam, it is deleted.

So don't bother, you are just wasting your time.

U.S. News: Ford To Fix Toyota Pedals

Oops.

"Of course, this only works for new vehicles," grumbles Motor Authority. "Existing vehicles subject to the recall have only the accelerator pedal replacement as a solution." Ford is set to outfit these vehicles with reshaped accelerator peddles and replace their floor mats.

Jalopnik's Many Faces

Jalopnik, on the 2009 Car Of The Year Award winning Hyundai Genesis:

There was an audible "Wooohhhh" sound when they announced the Hyundai Genesis as the 2009 North American Car Of The Year moments ago, marking the first win and nomination for a Korean automaker.

The Genesis benefited from the new factor as well as the fact one of the other nominations, the Ford Flex, is barely a car and based on a familiar platform. As much as we were holding out for the Volkswagen Jetta TDI, we hope, like a pre-Departed Martin Scorsese, they're just happy to be nominated. Score one for the Koreans. You can read our Hyundai Genesis review for our impressions.

Unlike other award ceremonies, we'd point out, the NACTOY is an actual contest with real journalists nominating and voting for the vehicles so this isn't just a headline grabber.

Jalopnik, on 2010 TOTY winner, Ford Transit Connect:

While a Chevy PR staffer yelled "F***!" in the crowd, the Ford Transit Connect, the Traverse-besting little-commercial-van-that-could, picks up North American Truck Of The Year. The Ford Fusion Hybrid, predictably, picks up Car Of The Year. We're predictably bored.

Frankly, we're nonplussed by Ford picking up both awards. NACTOY's a joke — picked by insiders for insiders. In fact, if the award weren't handed out at the Detroit Auto Show by the head of the Detroit Auto Show it wouldn't be worth a damn thing.

Not that we're complaining — we love the Transit Connect and the Ford Fusion Hybrid's an impressive beige car disguised as a Game Boy — but seriously, the award's not worthwhile to anyone but the marketing folks.

So, which is it, Jalopnik?  Is the COTY/TOTY thing a joke or not?

Top Gear GIve-Away

If you are a fan of the BBC's Top Gear program (which I am, I watch mostly on YouTube), the new season begins January 25th on BBC America.

Here, for example, is Top Gear's hilarious review of the Spyker C8 sportscar


"There are two Hollands... one where everyone goes on holiday in a caravan, and there are tulips, and you've got the other, which is full of drunk Lilliputians, vomiting on Philipino girls"

As part of their promotion, BBC will be giving away DVDs of the show's previous two seasons at http://www.bbcamerica.com/topgear.

Bizarre Audi Commercial

If only Hitler had tired to gas Jews with VW powered clean diesels!

This commercial is in such poor taste, is is shocking.

Ward's 10 Best Engines

Ward's has published their list of the 10 best engines (article here). They have given extra weight to efficiency, I think, considering the overall small displacement (average 2.73L) and large number of diesels, turbos, and hybrids on the list.

7 companies made the list, VW, BMW, Ford, GM, Hyundai, Subaru, and Toyota. Some big names are missing--nothing from Nissan or Honda here. No Mercedes. Chrysler's Phoenix didn't make it in time for this year's list, maybe Chrysler can make next year's? Maybe Fiat's Multi-air, next time?

This year's winners and the applications tested:

• 2.0L TFSI Turbocharged DOHC I-4 (Audi A4)
• 3.0L TFSI Supercharged DOHC V-6 (Audi S4)
• 3.0L DOHC I-6 Turbodiesel (BMW 335d)
• 2.5L DOHC I-4 Hybrid (Ford Fusion Hybrid)
• 3.5L EcoBoost Turbocharged DOHC V-6 (Ford Taurus SHO)
• 2.4L Ecotec DOHC I-4 (Chevrolet Equinox)
• 4.6L Tau DOHC V-8 (Hyundai Genesis)
• 2.5L Turbocharged DOHC H-4 (Subaru Legacy 2.5GT)
• 1.8L DOHC I-4 Hybrid (Toyota Prius)
• 2.0L SOHC I-4 Turbodiesel (Volkswagen Jetta SportWagen TDI)

Video: Corvette Clutch Burn-Out.

Oops. That wasn't the tires smoking!


Corvette Burnout Fail Destroys Clutch - Watch more Funny Videos

Electric PT Cruiser Nightmare

When you are trying to be bleeding edge, sometimes you bleed.

Blogger Barret Lyon, who writes at Verbophobia, tried to buy a plug-in electric conversion PT Cruiser, being sold by a startup company.

My lawyer and I hired a superstar electrical engineering expert named Art MacCarley, Ph.D., PE., who happens to be the Department Chair of the Electrical Engineering department at Cal Poly San Luis Obispo. Dr. MacCarley drove to my house and spent the entire day meticulously going through the car.

...

Art put it very politely, but basically he was saying that college students could have built this car better than EV Innovations ( a publicly traded company). Attached to this article is the full report written by Dr. MacCarley.

It turned out so bad that he wound up suing them under the Lemon Law, and settling out of court at a loss of $20,000.

This underscores the point that making reliable, affordable, safe, and refined cars of any type (gas or electric) is an extremely tricky business.

Don't be in a hurry. When the good stuff gets here, you'll know it. In the meantime, drive a nice gas-electric hybrid, if you must have an electrified car.

Goodbye, Carbonite

I have been using Carbonite as my backup service for 2 years now, but I will not be renewing.  

Carbonite has an infuriating feature.  To save storage space on their end, they automatically de-select video files from your backup sets.  Which means that to backup family videos, you have to manually go and select video files every so often. 

I have had enough of this.

My subscription will run out soon, and I will switch to a different service.  So far, Mozy and Backblaze look the most promising.  Both are unlimited, cheap, and seem to get good reviews.

2010 NA Car Of The Year, My Vote

I don't really get a vote on the 2010 North American Car Of The Year, but if I did, here is how I would vote.

Car Vote: 2010 Ford Fusion Hybrd
The Fusion Hybrid is, according to numerous sources, the best hybrid sedan on the market.  From car magazines to Consumer Reports, the hybrid Fusion is very highly rated for its ride and handling, refinement, and neat instrument cluster.  The styling update is handsome, making the car look faster and more masculine than the first generation Fusion.  The Fusion is also known for high reliability.  A significant downside to this car is that the packaging of the battery pack, behind the rear seat back, precludes a fold-down rear seat feature.  Home Depot and Ikea runs will have to be done with something else. 

The Buick Lacrosse is a major product for GM, and shows the future direction of Buick.  It is a handsome new package (though a bit over-styled) with an interesting direct injection I4 motor which makes good power and fuel economy. 

The VW Golf gets good reviews for ride and handling, power, and interior design.  It is one of the few passenger cars that can be had with a clean diesel engine, becaus VW has been committed to selling diesels in the U.S.  But its exterior design, to me, is bland.  And VW has not been known for stellar reliability

Truck Vote: 2010 Chevrolet Equinox
The Equinox is a major new product for GM, updating their badly uncompetitive previous compact SUV offerings which included the previous Equinox, as well as the recently departed Pontiac Torrent and Saturn Vue.  It has an attractive design, with sharp styling and good proportions.  The interior is much better than previous Chevrolet products, and stands with the best in its class.  Fuel economy is excellent with the 2.4L Ecotech with direct injection.  The major issue with this vehicle is probably GM's inconsistent quality.  Hopefully for GM, the Equinox is one of their high quality products.

The Ford Transit Connect is a neat little delivery van, but I am not sure it is TOTY material.  It isn't really a consumer product, but a fleet vehicle.  It has a spartan interior, and being based on the current Focus platform, its engine and transmission are getting old.  Fuel economy is very good for its payload, and reviews praise the handling.

The Subaru Outback is a good solid Subaru product.  The new model is larger than the previous generation, but doesn't come with any more power.  It combines high reliability and safety with bland styling and boxer engines.  It is quiet and comfortable, but to me, boring. 

The Chevy Volt Dance!

This so bad, it is classic. I hope, for GM's sake, they bury this song and dance quick.

NASA's Billions

This article from New Scientist reports that NASA needs about $3 Billion more dollars in their budget to support "meaningful" human space exploration, and that the Obama administration is likely to give them part of their request.

In October, a report by a White House panel headed by former Lockheed Martin CEO Norman Augustine said NASA would be unable to support meaningful human space exploration without at least $3 billion more per year.

 In my opinon, we have much higher priorities for our science and research funding than manned space exploration, which is dangerous and expensive.  Things like high-efficiency cars, future fuel sources, smart power distribution, smart traffic control, robotic warfare.  We need ways to find WMD's, and ways to zap terrorists from thousands of miles away. 

NASA should focus on cheaper (relatively) un-manned exploration.  We should be sending more robot probes and space telescopes, not people.  Star Trek will remain a fantasy for now, and that is OK. 

Make It Stop! AAAAH!

Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you, the Smart Woody.

Do People Want Small Cars?

Do people want small cars?  The market research so far says "not really".  Paul Eisenstein has a good compact writeup of the issue here.

Will people buy small cars? Yes, they will, and as time goes on, they will have no choice. 

I expect the mechanism for this to be pricing.  Automakers will have no choice but raise prices on large and thirsty vehicles, and limit production volumes, to encourage people to buy the smaller cars. 

Large, high performance vehicles will continue to be sold, but at a significant price premium. 

Wanted: The Perfect Portable Internet Device

I want someone to make a little computer which has the following specifications.  Dell, are you listening?

• Tablet format (hidden or no discrete keyboard)
• 10 or 11" touch screen
• Powerful processor to play video files without stutter (Intel CULV? Ion chipset?)
• 2GB+ RAM
• Bluetooth
• Webcam
• Wi-Fi N
• Windows 7 Home Premium (not Starter)
• 3 hours of battery life using wi-fi or video playback
• Price below $600
  

Something like the Dell 11z or Acer 1410 but in a tablet form instead of notebook form.  The Archos 9 is close, but it appears to be under-powered for the task, and early reports are that it struggles with some video files.

Oh, and please get it to market before Apple shows up and ruins the show with their hype.

The Return of 55mph? Probably Not Yet.

Over at the Examiner, Mark Tapscot is warning that the EPA is going to inevitably mandate a national speed limit, as a result of its CO2 endangerment finding.

I don't think the EPA will do it, in part because I am not sure they can. The EPA has a mandate to regulate major emitters of pollution, and in general works on the large scale industrial policy level. The EPA makes rules on smog forming automobile emissions, also known as Tier II, for example.

Speed limits are locally regulated, on a state-by-state basis. The old 55mph national speed limit was enacted by Congress, and was enforced on the states with the threat of withholding road funding. The EPA doesn't have this budgetary power, and I am not sure if it has the legal authority to impose a national speed limit.

The EPA could, however, publish a rule that requires automakers to add speed related equipment to their vehicles. For example, a GPS system with a database of local speed limits could babysit the driver and make it unpleasant or impossible to speed. At the most extreme, the EPA could mandate a speed control system which simply limits the top speed of a vehicle.

I think it would be an excellent national debate if they tried for it. Let's get it out in the open. Do we believe in man-made global warming, as a nation, or do we not? Do we buy the EPA's ruling that CO2 is a poison, not just a plant food?

Review: Kirkland Beer (Costco Beer)

At Costco the other day, I saw that they were selling Kirkland branded beer. Kirkland is Costco's store brand. It was reasonably priced for "real beer", about $18 for a case of 24.

Four flavors are included, one sixpack each: Hefeweizen, Pale Ale, German Lager, and Amber Ale.

I have tasted each flavor, and they all have similar characteristics. They have a solid hoppy taste, with nice color and a light to medium body. This is relatively light beer, not barley stew, but with a good hop hit.

The Hegeweizen was actually cloudy (see photo), which is sort of neat.

Overall, I would say this is a pretty good value for decent beer. I'm not sure it is as good as, say, Bell's, but I am not regretting the purchase.

Mini-Review: WeatherTech Floor Mats

If you get any auto magazines, such as C&D or AW or MT, you have probably seen the multipage ads for WeatherTech floor mats, the ones that show the ankles and tow cleavage.  I decided to order a set of front "semi custom" mats for my car. 

While they are expensive, at about $60/pair delivered, they do fit quite well.  They have a built in hole to mount on the mat retainer hook.  They are made of a nice, heavy rubber with deep grooves and good grip.  They fit very well.  Overall, I would say they are worth the price.  And they are made in the U.S.A., a rare breed nowadays.

*This review was not requested by WeatherTech, and no compensation was given for it.

Stolen Cop Car Possibly Used In Detroit Rape

I heard on the radio this morning that a parked unmarked police cruiser, a Dodge Charger, was stolen from Detroit, ironically, from a policeman who was with the auto theft unit.  Later, a woman who's car had stalled out on I-94 was raped by two men who drove up in a vehicle that matched the description.  The wire story is here.

The stolen car's license plate is 8JP H46. 

If you are ever followed by a vehicle that looks like a police car, but is not marked, you are NOT obligated to pull over.  If they flash lights at you, and you aren't sure if they are  legit or not, do not pull over unless you are in a well lit public area.  You can also call 911 and explain what is going on, and they will try figure out what is going on.

The End Of Saab?

Bad news for Saab fans today. Koenigsegg, like Penske with Saturn, backed out of the deal, leaving GM with another brand it doesn't want.

Perhaps Geely will look at it, since it is rumored that they are leading the bidders for Volvo.

A great place to go for Saab discussion is Saabs United, the home of Steve Wade, the definitive Saab Blogger, who formerly blogged at Trollhattan Saab. Swade thinks GM will probably try to sell to another buyer, because they have a lot invested in Saab, and can use the cash.

The dismantling of GM sure is ugly.

How To Convert .WTV Files (For Free)

Windows 7 Media Center records TV shows into a file format called ".WTV".

I found that you can convert these to .WMV format using the free Windows Movie Maker Live from Microsoft. Then, it can be played on many other devices.

Google Chrome's Secret Plan

Google is making news this week unveiling a prototype of its new OS, which is basically a stripped down Linux based wrapper for their Chrome browser.   As part of the Q&A, Google stated that other browsers (such as Opera or Firefox) won't run on Chrome OS.

One of the reasons the Google is developing Chrome and the Chrome OS isn't widely discussed, but I think it is fairly obvious.

Google makes it's money from advertising.  You can't get an ad blocker for Chrome.  And you won't be able to run Firefox on Chrome OS.  What Google is doing is ensuring that people will have to see advertising, by luring us in with slick, lean, and fast applications.

Buick Manual? NFW!

Amazing news.  Buick may start selling a Regal in the U.S. with a manual transmission.  I'm blown away.

This is definitive proof that GM is serious about shifting Buick's image, which it badly needs to do.  Currently, Buick="old". 

Nothing says "young" like 3 pedals on the floor.

Aptera Death Watch?

Should we start an Aptera Death Watch, TTAC style?

Not yet, but maybe soon.

Aptera's difficulties in getting financing, which is very much like Tesla and Fisker's struggles to stay alive, underscores the point that making vehicles is a very tricky business.  It is capital intensive, requires high efforts, and demands a very high quality product.  The car buying public will not accept a vehicle that is not reliable, day in and day out, for over 100,000 miles.  If you design and build something that is just a little off, you get hammered.

The venture capitalists of the world know this.  They look at the financial history books and see numerous companies which tried to start up to build a better car, and then faded out.  Tucker, Bricklin, DeLorean, and so on.

Building a car isn't like building an iPod (not to minimize the excellent engineering behind the iPod).  You can't just jump in with fresh ideas and be successful.

Republicans Hate GM, Democrats Heart Toyota

Jalopnik asks, "Why Do Republicans Hate American Automakers?", and talks about how some Republican pols are badmouthing GM and Chrysler, including recent presidential election loser John McCain.

Anecdotally, however, I can tell you that many Republicans are solidly "buy American" types, from a variety of different backgrounds.  There are rural farmers and hunters who love their full size American trucks.  There are patriotic war veterans who won't drive any "Jap" cars.  And, believe it or not, there are even Republicans who are pro-UAW (though a minority, for sure). 

I have personally noticed that there are lots of liberals who drive non-UAW assembled vehicles with pride.  Many times I have noticed a car (in metro Detroit, no less!) sporting stickers such as "Obama", "End This War", etc., and as often as not, this car is a Toyota or Honda.  It seems the liberals don't necessarily love the American auto makers either, at least not when it comes down to choosing a car to own.

When was the last time you saw an NRA sticker on a Prius?

Housekeeping

Google Ads are now gone. They were cluttering up my blog, and though they were paying a little, it wasn't a significant amount. Enjoy.

GM's Repayment Plan

In today's news, GM is going to begin repaying its government loan.

Sort of.

Most of GM's government debt, which came from the TARP, was converted to ownership in the New GM. So the government loans that GM is going to start repaying are only $6.7 Billion out of about $50 Billion it received in total.

GM is sitting on a cash pile of $42.6 Billion, according to the news story. That cash is essentially all bailout money, as GM is not yet generating net profit. So GM is going to use bailout money to pay off a bailout loan. Then, when the New GM sells stock, we the taxpayers will hopefully gain back some of the rest.

Hope. The watchword of the Obama administration.

Don't Boycott GM

I have talked to a few people, and read many more on web forums, who will not buy any GM or Chrysler products because they took a government bailout. Some of these folks also want to stick it to the UAW, who they see as the reason for GM and Chrysler's destruction.

This attitude is self defeating.

The taxpayer money has been spent, and the best (and only) way to recover it is for GM and Chrysler to be successful. A profitable GM will be able to service its outstanding TARP loans, and provide a stock value which will repay the government. Refusing to buy GM cars, while emotionally satisfying, only works against GM's success, and the repayment of the taxpayer loans.

As for the UAW, it is true they fought hard and were successful in the past at winning extremely generous benefits for their employees. But it was the automaker's management which was a negotiating partner, and didn't have the fortitude to keep things more reasonable, even if it meant strikes and nasty public relations. The UAW was doing it's job, fighting for its members. Expecting otherwise is like expecting the wolf to go easy on the sheep.

But with the collapse of the domestic business, and bankruptcy of 2 of the 3 UAW automakers, the UAW woke up in a hurry. The UAW leadership, under Ron Gettlefinger, pushed hard on the rank and file to agree to multiple rounds of contract renegotiations.

If the Detroit 3 can't survive going forward, it is not because the UAW workers are being overpaid. From here on out, "it's the product, stupid".

Mini Review: Dell Vostro 1520 Laptop

I ordered a Dell Vostro 1520 from Dell Small Business. It was a screaming deal, $499 after a $50 coupon, stackable with their promotion.

Unfortunately, I hated the laptop, and returned it after two days.

The screen was nice. The processor fast. Windows 7 was great. The problem was, the keyboard was just awful. It had a lot of flex, and my fingers seemed to bounce off of it when I typed. On top of that, the keys rattled when you typed, with a high pitched sound, it drove me nuts.

Now I need to figure out if I want to try a Latitude (more money) or a Studio. Anybody have any advice for me? Who makes a laptop which is reasonably priced and has a solid keyboard?

Ford's New Inflatable Seat Belt

Update: Wes Sherwood of Ford Safety PR has left answers to my questions in the first comment. Thanks Wes!

Ford unveiled a new inflatable rear seatbelt design today. (There's a neat video here.)

This looks like a pretty good idea, but I do have some questions. If any Ford safety or PR people are reading, please chime in.

• What happens if you use one of these belts to anchor an infant seat, using the belt instead of LATCH anchors? Will the expanding baloon damage the infant seat?
• Why not use these on the front, too? Seems like front passengers could benefit as well.
• Will they trigger in a minor accident? Can they be repaired, or will they be expensive to replace, like airbags?
• Will accessories such as seatbelt positioners, or fuzzy seat belt covers defeat or interfere with the balloon?

Open Question To Chrysler/Fiat

A question for Chrysler:  why are you going to keep building the Jeep "Pavement" Compass?  How does this product advance your brand?  You can barely sell any of them (8,498 YTD).  The only Jeep model which sells fewer is the bloated Pavement Commander.  

Don't replace it with a Fiat in 2012.  Kill it now.  Nuke it from orbit.  It's not a Jeep.  It's not even close.    

Exotic Car Sighting

This evening, MI northern 'burbs. Can you name it? (sorry, a little blurry, I don't often shoot photos in my car)

Will GM Pay Us Back?

This is a big question these days, and many observers say "no".  According to Rasmussen, most Americans don't expect GM to be able to pay back the loans.  I think the taxpayer is basically screwed here.  Even if there is a successful IPO, there is no way that the new GM will be worth as much in stock as the Old GM at its peak. 

What could a valuation of the New GM be?  According to Dartmouth's Anant Sundaram, the government share could about $26 billion.  You can see his analysis here.

So if there is an IPO, and the government gets $26 billion for GM, the U.S. Government will get a return of about 0.60 on the dollar ($50.7B loaned, $8.8B remains as debt, so $42.7B put in as equity)

Mosler For Pres? Heh.

Warren Mosler, hedge fund manager and supercar builder, may be running for President.  One of Mosler's proposals is a national 30mph speed limit, to save fuel and reduce accidents.  Yes, that's 30mph.  Read it here.

Good luck with that.

Gettelfinger On Marchionne

This morning on Paul W. Smith's morning talk show (AM760), Ron Gettelfinger was a guest.  Paul W. tried to extract comments from Gettelfinger about Fiat's leaked plans to kill off some badly noncompetitive Chrysler and Dodge products, and the risk that this plan may hold for UAW employment.  Gettelfinger, as carefully spoken as ever, did not take the bait, and openly praised Sergio Marchionne instead.   Approximately:

"We have a close working relationship with Sergio Marchionne.  He has his arms around the car industry.  He understands what the buying public wants."

Gettelfinger then went on to say, as he often does, that he won't comment on "rumors and speculation".  "The newspapers, they want to sell their product.  And you know how they have been doing lately". 

Besides a resistance to attack Fiat based on an unpublished plan, Gettelfinger's response may indicate that there is less danger to UAW interests in Fiat's plan than the media is inferring.  For example, perhaps Fiat plans to build more Fiat/Alfa cars here using UAW labor, and that the plants will be re-tooled rather than shut down.

Paper: LEDs Not As Cool As You Think

According to a paper published in an IEEE journal, LED lamps can run hotter than equivalent fluorescent lamps.  Where florescents may dissipate 73-77% of their output as heat, the LEDs tested wasted 87-90% of their output!  Source here.

LED lighting has a long way to go. 

Car Buying Advice

A friend of mine is working on a purchase of a new vehicle.  She called me in terror the other day and said "they told me I should get paint protection, and rust proofing, and an extended warranty, and I wasn't sure so I said 'ok' let me think about it".  I told her to call the salesman back and cancel all of it.

• You don't need rust proofing.  Cars today are designed to survive 150,000 miles or more, including salty road winters.  Just make sure to wash your undercarriage once in a while, you'll be fine.
• You don't need paint sealant.  The car is clearcoated at the factory.  If you park it outside a lot, put on some Rain-X or Turtle wax, that will do the trick.
• You don't need an extended warranty.  Today's cars are as reliable as ever. These are really just insurance policies, which means that mathematically, you will on average save money by self insuring.  That's because the cost of the policy is the average pay-out per customer + profit margin. 
• You don't need a pre-paid service contract.  Your car won't need much more than oil and tire rotations for the first 30,000 miles, and after that, you should be taking it to your neighborhood service shop (I like my local Midas,myself, and Firestone has been good to me also).  Dealer service rates are substantially higher, on average, than independent shops.

The one item I told her to consider, if it would maker he sleep better, was the road hazard warranty,which is insurance against wheel damage.  At $350, it was cheap compared to the price of a new wheel/tire, and Michigan's pothole roads are wheel destroyers. I myself have trashed 2 wheels in the last 3 years. 

Tell the dealer to keep the locking wheel nuts, the scotch guard, and everything else that didn't come from the factory (unless you like overpaying).  Learn the phrase, "No thanks, I want just the car". 

Video: OnStar Calls Hennessey

Tuner Hennessey Performance was testing a 700HP Cadillac CTS-V, and after pulling 0.99g, got a call from OnStar. "Vehicle Event Detected, Connecting To OnStar Emergency"

Internet COTY Voting

The "Internet Car Of The Year" awards are open for the final voting, here.

My picks:

Car: Camaro SS.  The return of a muscle car icon, with sharp styling (though poor rear visibility) and vicious performance.  Yes, the Taurus SHO is good, but it is a $40,000 Taurus.  The Shelby is also a wicked muscle car, and faster than the SS, but also quite a bit more expensive.  Bang for the buck, Camaro is the winner.

Truck: Ford Raptor.  One. Bad. Ass. Truck.  The Chevrolet Equinox is a well executed product, but it doesn't inspire lust.  Same goes for the Audi.  If you drive on of these two down Woodward Ave, no one will notice.  Drive a Raptor, and little kids will point and jump up and down.

Will GDI kill HEV?

As things currently stand, gasoline hybrid electric vehicles ("HEV" as opposed ot plug-in hybrid vehicles, or "PHEV") cost approximately $3,000 more than an similarly equipped gasoline vehicle, although the actual hardware cost may actually be more. 

However, a gasoline direct injection (GDI) engine, with turbocharging, such as GM's Ecotec (Chevrolet Cobalt SS) or Ford's Ecoboost (Taurus SHO) costs only about $750 more than its naturally aspirated counterpart.

When you down-size from a power equivalent naturally aspirated engine, you gain about 20% in fuel economy by going to turbo direct injection.  The hybrid fuel economy improvement is typically around 40-50% EPA combined.

As GDI type engines become more common, consumers will have to choose between a system that offers half of the fuel economy benefit for one quarter the cost.  If gasoline continues to be affordable (say, sub-$4.00), and Congress doesn't enact large tax incentives for HEVs, I don't see large scale adoption of HEVs until their costs come down dramatically. 

I know that I, for one, would choose GDI over HEV in the current market.  GDI doesn't force you to sacrifice cargo space because of batteries, and doesn't make the car heavier.  It doesn't give you the strange feel of regenerative braking.  And it gives you lots of fun-to-drive torque very quickly.

GM Marketing Backfire?

So after a few weeks of voting, GM's TheBestCarWins.com web site has the following results:

Fuel Efficiency: Toyota (Prius, not Land Cruiser)
Safety: Volvo
Quality: Toyota (sans zip ties)
Performance; BMW
The Best: BMW

So what was the point?  Everyone can see that GM's brands aren't the winners.  What did GM gain?

May The Best (Golf) Car Win

Oops.

If you type in "May The Best Car Win", you might wind up here.  Not GM.

No Zip Ties For Buick

From Fritz Henderson's recent web chat:

15:24

[Comment From Ray Wert ] Will Buick seek to add white, plastic floor mat zip-ties in a bid to look more like Lexus?

15:24

Fritz Henderson:  not going to get into this.

Heh.

Viper's iPhone Remote Start System

Viper (maker of car alarms and remote starters) sent me a PR kit for a new system which will allow you to remote start your car with your Apple iphone.



It looks neat, because you can start your car even if it isn't within direct line-of-sight; the system communicates between the iphone and the car over the cellular network.

However, there are a couple of things I wonder about. First, the cost: after the first year, it costs $30/year for service. Is that worth it? Not to me, when I can have a service-fee free line-of-sight remote starter.

Secondly, I wonder about the safety implications of being able to remote start your car without being near it. All remote starters have a cut-off timer which kills the engine if you don't come and open the car within a certain amount of time, typically about 10 minutes. But without being able to see your car, you have no idea if there is some unsafe situation where you wouldn't want to be starting a car.

Cash For Clunkers Credit Not Taxable

I have gotten one of those chain emails purporting to show that the CARS program (cash-for-clunkers) actually costs you more money than you save if your car had some trade in value.  The email is based on a false premise, that the credit is taxable.  It is not.  According to the CARS.GOV web site (here),

The CARS Act expressly provides that the credit is not income for the consumer.

Also, for 2009, the sales taxes on a new car purchase are tax deductible.

Future Cop Cars

Now that GM has announced that they will bring their Australian RWD V8 sedan to the U.S. as a police car, there is a clearer picture of what the U.S. police car market is going to look like in the next few years.

2011 Chevrolet Caprice

RWD, 6.0L V8, 355HP, ~4000lb, 0-60 in 5.3s (G8 numbers)
Based on the same platform as the recently departed G8.

Photo courtesy of Edmunds

2011 Ford Taurus (rumored)

FWD/AWD GTDI 3.5L 365HP, 4300lb, 0-60 in 5.8s (SHO numbers)
Big and heavy, but quick thanks to twin turbo direct injection. Will the police accept front wheel biased AWD?

Photo courtesy of Edmunds

2012 Carbon Motors E7 (in development)

RWD 3.0L Diesel ">250HP", 4000lb, 0-60mph 6.5s (planned)
Still a concept car at this point, or vapor-ware for the skeptical, Carbon Motors is working on the design, and the manufacturing plant has not been tooled yet. The E7 will be built on an "aluminum spaceframe" with body panels. Expected to sell for around $60,000 a copy and last for 250,000 miles before being scrapped. This would be the only purpose-built police car in the U.S.

Photo courtesy of Edmunds

2010 Dodge Charger

RWD 5.7L V8 340HP, 4000lb, 0-60 in 6.2s
The old man of this group, the Charger platform will have been in production for 6 years by the time 2011-12 arrives.

Photo courtesy of Flickr

For comparison:

Crown Victoria CVPI

RWD 4.6L V8, 250 HP, 4000lb, 0-60 in 7.6s.

Survey: Customers Regret Buying Small Cars

The Pittsburg Post-Gazette (link) has an interesting article about sagging demand for small cars in the face of cheaper gas. AutoPacific did a study that asked buyers of small cars what they thought of their purchase, and unsurprisingly (to me), many indicated they'd rather go large next time.

"This is buyer's remorse," said George Peterson, president of AutoPacific, "What they said in the study is they want a bigger car. They bought a fuel efficient car, but now they're saying, 'It does what I want, but it doesn't have what I want. It doesn't have the features, the power, the room, and next time I'll opt for a bigger car.' "

In the AutoPacific study, based on more than 32,000 new car and light truck buyers in the United States, 30 percent said they wanted more power than they have in their current small car, 25 percent wanted more cargo room, 18 percent want more room in general, and 25 percent want more technology. In addition, 22 percent wanted a softer ride, and 18 percent wanted more safety.

In general, I think the auto companies expect that gas will be more expensive in the longer term, and with the 35.5mpg CAFE standards coming for 2016, will be pushing small cars more aggressively than ever.

What this research tells us is that in order to have satisfied small customers, carmakers need to offer cars that are comfortable, have good cargo space, good acceleration, and lots of gadgets. In other words, well equipped smaller cars. Which is exactly what the carmakers are working on.

Over the next few years, we will be seeing mainstream European style small cars in this country, such as the Chevrolet Cruze and Volt, Ford Fiesta and Focus, Fiat 500. These will be fun to drive, solidly built, and well equipped.

And, in a departure from what most consumers are used to, the new crop of small cars will not be cheap. We can expect to be seeing $20,000 price stickers for our "econoboxes" in the future.

Honda Crosstour?

I haven't digested all of its stats and photos yet, but from what I see so far, the Honda Crosstour looks like an answer to a question no one asked: "Can you make a cheaper copy of the BMW X6?". To me, the Crosstour looks like a big compromise. I also hope it looks better in person than in the photos, because the photos show me a whole lot of ugly.

Image courtesy of Edmunds

Edmunds has some photos and commentary here.

GM Sort Of Leaving RenCen?

According to a story in the Detroit News (here), GM is considering moving many employees out of downtown Detroit's only modern high-rise, the Renaissance Center, to fill in the empty offices in Warren, where many of the designers and engineers sit.  GM tried to sell the RenCen and then rent it back recently, but couldn't find a buyer.  And Warren's mayor recently campaigned to have GM move its headquarters entirely back to Warren. 

It's bad for Detroit, which is already teetering on insolvency, but GM has to look out for GM.  If Warren is better for cash flow, then Warren should win.

How A V6 Beats A V8

Q: How does a V6 out-run a V8 with more displacement?

A: On a high altitude hill climb where the V6 has twin-turbos compressing the intake air, while the V8's run at effectively 60% of their displacement.

Still, it is sort of neat to see a V6 from Ford spank a Maserati at something.  Link: http://www.6versus8.com/showdown/intro/index.html